IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1441.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre
[The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria]

Author

Listed:
  • Jáki, Erika

Abstract

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C12, C90, D03, D53, D83, G02, G17, P11.

Suggested Citation

  • Jáki, Erika, 2013. "A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre [The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertaint," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1357-1369.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1441
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hollis Ashbaugh & Morton Pincus, 2001. "Domestic Accounting Standards, International Accounting Standards, and the Predictability of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 417-434, December.
    2. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    3. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 2001. "A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5‐6), pages 531-562, June.
    4. Király, Júlia & Nagy, Márton & Banai, Ádám, 2010. "Az aranykor vége Magyarországon. "Külföldi" és "lokális" bankok - válság előtt és válság után [End of the golden age in Hungary. "Foreign" and "local" banks ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 105-131.
    5. Gilles Hilary & Charles Hsu, 2013. "Analyst Forecast Consistency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 271-297, February.
    6. P. Eric Yeung, 2009. "Uncertainty and Expectation Revisions after Earnings Announcements," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 273-301, March.
    7. William A. Allen & Dr Richhild Moessner, 2011. "The International Liquidity Crisis of 2008–2009," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 12(2), pages 183-198, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hela Turki & Senda Wali & Younes Boujelbène, 2016. "IFRS, Environnement Informationnel et Pertinence des chiffres comptables," Post-Print hal-01901074, HAL.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Sheng, Xuguang & Thevenot, Maya, 2012. "A new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 21-33.
    4. Oesinghaus, Andreas, 2024. "Analysts’ extrapolative expectations in the cross-section," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Ahmed Bouteska & Boutheina Regaieg, 2017. "Overconfidence Bias, Over/Under-reaction of Financial Analysts on the Tunisian Stock Market, and Their Impacts on the Earnings Forecasts," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 208-214.
    6. Martin Wallmeier, 2005. "Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 131-151, August.
    7. Astaiza-Gómez, José Gabriel, 2021. "The Effects of Investors' Information Acquisition On Sell-Side Analysts Forecast Bias," MPRA Paper 110059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
    9. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Mark A. Clatworthy & Tuan Ho & Jude Mengzhu Zhu, 2022. "Disagreement about the past: An empirical assessment of bank analysts' GAAP and non‐GAAP earnings measures," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3-4), pages 588-624, March.
    11. Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
    12. Zhao, Chen & Li, Yubin & Govindaraj, Suresh & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "CDS trading and analyst optimism," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    13. Clatworthy, Mark A. & Peel, David A. & Pope, Peter F., 2007. "Evaluating the properties of analysts’ forecasts: A bootstrap approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-13.
    14. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Lu Zhang & Yuan George Shan & Millicent Chang, 2021. "Can CSR Disclosure Protect Firm Reputation During Financial Restatements?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 157-184, September.
    16. Dancsik, Bálint, 2017. "Számít-e a devizahiteles múlt?. A lakáshitelkamatok rögzítéséről szóló döntés vizsgálata mikroszintű adatokon [Analysing the decision of fixing housing loan interest rates on micro-level data: does," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1030-1055.
    17. Juan Manuel García Lara & Beatriz García Osma & Belén Gill de Albornoz Noguer, 2006. "Effects of database choice on international accounting research," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 42(3‐4), pages 426-454, September.
    18. Attig, Najah & Guedhami, Omrane & Mishra, Dev, 2008. "Multiple large shareholders, control contests, and implied cost of equity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 721-737, December.
    19. Krolikowski, Marcin W. & Chen, Gaole & Mohr, Joseph E., 2016. "Optimism pattern of all-star analysts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 222-228.
    20. Wendy Green & Richard D. Morris & Haiping Tang, 2010. "The split equity reform and corporate financial transparency in China," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 20-48, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • P11 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.