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Social learning and analyst behavior

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  • Kumar, Alok
  • Rantala, Ville
  • Xu, Rosy

Abstract

This study examines whether sell-side equity analysts engage in “social learning” in which their earnings forecasts for certain firms are influenced by the forecasts and outcomes of “peer” analysts associated with other firms in their respective portfolios. We find that analyst optimism is negatively correlated with recent forecast errors, by peers, on other firms in the analyst's portfolio. An analyst is also more likely to issue “bold” forecasts when peers recently issued similar forecasts for other portfolio firms. Analysts learn more from peers with similar personal characteristics. Overall, social learning benefits analysts and improves their forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:143:y:2022:i:1:p:434-461
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sell-side equity analysts; Social learning; Bold forecasts; Forecast accuracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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