IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/105.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Kiigazítás recesszió nélkül. Esettanulmány a magyar stabilizációról
[Adjustment without recession: A Case Study of Hungarian Stabilization]

Author

Listed:
  • Kornai, János

Abstract

1995. március 12-én a magyar kormány és a központi bank szigorú kiigazítási és stabilizációs programot hirdetett meg. A cikk az első eredmények számbavételére tesz kísérletet. A program meghirdetése előtt Magyarország két egymást követő év- ben hatalmas fizetésimérleg-hiányt mutatott fel, és nemzetközi megítélése romlani kezdett. A program radikális intézkedései nyomán elkerülhetővé vált a mexikói vál- sághoz hasonló pénzügyi katasztrófa. Sok makrogazdasági mutató jól érzékelhető javulást jelez: lényegesen csökkent a kereskedelmi mérleg és a folyó fizetési mérleg hiánya, a költségvetés elsődleges egyenlege pozitív lett. Az ilyesféle stabilizációs programokat rendszerint súlyos visszaesés és a munkanélküliség nagy növekedése kíséri. Magyarország elkerülte ezeket a mellékhatásokat: a GDP drasztikus vissza- esés helyett valamelyest tovább növekedett, és a munkanélküliség változatlan ma- radt. A javulásnak nagy ára volt: az életszínvonal erőteljes csökkenése, az infláció felgyorsulása, bár a magyarországi infláció még mindig a kézben tartott, mérsékelt infláció sávjában maradt. A cikk ismerteti a program heterodox módszereit: 1. nagy leértékelés, az előre meghirdetett csúszó árfolyam rezsimjének bevezetése, valamint ideiglenes import- vámpótlék kivetése; 2. határozott jövedelempolitika, amely 12 százalékos reálbércsök- kenést kényszerített ki; 3. fiskális intézkedések, köztük jóléti jogosultságok csök- kentése (a program meghirdetése előtt ezek a jogosultságok tabuk voltak); 4. a hitel- kínálat átcsoportosítása a vállalati szektor javára, a jövedelmezőség növekedése; 5. feszített (bár nem mértéktelenül feszített) monetáris politika, amely lehetővé tette a sikeres vállalatok expanzióját; 6. a privatizáció felgyorsítása, nagy és sikeres lépé- sek egyes kulcsszektorok (energia, telekommunikáció) privatizációjában. Végezetül a tanulmány óva int a túlzott magabiztosságtól és felhívja a figyelmet a potenciális veszélyekre. A makrogazdasági javulás még törékeny. A magyar fejlődés legbiztatóbb sajátossága a termelékenység erőteljes és folyamatos növekedése.

Suggested Citation

  • Kornai, János, 1996. "Kiigazítás recesszió nélkül. Esettanulmány a magyar stabilizációról [Adjustment without recession: A Case Study of Hungarian Stabilization]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 585-613.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:105
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=105
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
    2. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639.
    3. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-152, May.
    4. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martos, Béla & Augusztinovics, Mária, 1995. "Számítások és következtetések nyugdíjreformra [The reform of the pension system: computations and conclusions]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 993-1023.
    6. S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 5.
    7. Darvas, Zsolt, 1996. "Exchange Rate Premia and the Credibility of the Crawling Target Zone in Hungary," CEPR Discussion Papers 1307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. László Halpern, 1996. "Real exchange rate and exchange rate policy in Hungary," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 211-228, May.
    9. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    10. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 95-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    11. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    12. Richard N. Cooper, 1992. "Economic Stabilization and Debt in Developing Countries," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031876, December.
    13. Drazen, Allan & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "The Benefit of Crises for Economic Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 598-607, June.
    14. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    15. Kornai, János, 1995. "A magyar gazdaságpolitika dilemmái [Dilemmas of the Hungarian economic policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 633-649.
    16. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
    17. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," IMF Working Papers 1996/031, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Voszka, Eva, 1994. "Centralization, Renationalization, Redistribution. The Role of the Government in Changing the Ownership Structure in Hungary, 1989-93," CEPR Discussion Papers 916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balassa, Ákos, 1997. "Gondolatok a gazdasági növekedés néhány problémájáról [Some thoughts about a few problems of economic growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 721-737.
    2. Gábor R., István, 1997. "Belső versus foglalkozási munkaerőpiac - a posztszocialista átalakulás elhanyagolt dimenziója [Internal counter-employment labour market - a neglected dimension of post-socialist transformation]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 457-473.
    3. Kiss, Gábor Dávid & Kovács, György & Varga, János Zoltán, 2016. "Várakozások és a monetáris politika - különös tekintettel a magyarországi gyakorlatra [Expectations and monetary policy, with special attention to practice in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1192-1216.
    4. Csaba, László, 2011. "A magyar átalakulás és fejlődés néhány általánosítható elméleti tanulsága [Some generalizable theoretical lessons of the Hungarian transformation and development]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 813-831.
    5. Tóth, István János, 1998. "Vállalkozások tulajdonosi kapcsolatai Magyarországon 19921996 között [Ownership relations of enterprises in Hungary between 19921996]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 591-615.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    2. Sulo Haderi & Harry Papapanagos & Peter Sanfey & Mirela Talka, 1999. "Inflation and Stabilisation in Albania," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 127-141.
    3. Ariane Tichit, 1998. "Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes : application d'un modèle de durée," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 73-92.
    4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    5. Rapetti, Martin & Palazzo, Gabriel & Waldman, Joaquin, 2023. "Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina [Stabilization plans: Evidence from Latin America]," MPRA Paper 118910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Artus P., 2001. "What Exchange - Rate System For Emerging Countries?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 27-60, January -.
    7. Jose Saboin, 2018. "The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 2018/266, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1996. "Fiscal Balance During Inflation, Disinflation, and Immigration: Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1996/033, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mr. Arvind Subramanian, 1997. "The Egyptian Stabilization Experience: An Analytical Retrospective," IMF Working Papers 1997/105, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    14. Pinto, Brian & Drebentsov, Vladimir & Morozov, Alexander, 2000. "Give growth and macroeconomic stability in Russia a chance - harden budgets by eliminating nonpayments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2324, The World Bank.
    15. Campos, Nauro F. & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 2093, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 1-68.
    17. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1995. "Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1995/136, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    19. Rossitsa Rangelova, 1999. "Economic Growth in Transition CEECs: Implications for and of Modern Growth Theory," ERI-BAS Chapters, in: Mitko Dimitrov & Wladimir Andreff & Laszlo Csaba (ed.), Economies in Transition and the Variety of Capitalisms. Features, Changes, Convergence, edition 1, chapter 12, pages 102-126, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute.
    20. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post-communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Odon Sok to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.