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Mitigating bus bunching with real-time crowding information

Author

Listed:
  • Arkadiusz Drabicki

    (Cracow University of Technology)

  • Rafał Kucharski

    (Jagiellonian University)

  • Oded Cats

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

A common problem in public transport systems is bus bunching, characterized by a negative feedback loop between service headways, number of boarding passengers and dwell times. In this study, we examine whether providing real-time crowding information (RTCI) at the stop regarding the two next vehicle departures can stimulate passengers to wait for a less-crowded departure, and thus alleviate the bunching effect. To this end, we leverage on results from own stated-preference survey and develop a boarding choice model. The model accounts for the presence of RTCI and is implemented within dynamic public transport simulation framework. Application to the case-study model of a major bus corridor in Warsaw (Poland) reveals that RTCI can induce a significant probability (30–70%) of intentionally skipping an overcrowded bus and waiting for a later departure instead. This behaviour, in turn, results in significantly lower vehicle headway and load variations, without deteriorations in total waiting utility. Overall, journey experience improves by 6%, and crucially—the prevalence of denial-of-boarding and excessive on-board overcrowding is substantially reduced, by ca. 40%. Results of our study indicate that the willingness to wait induced by RTCI can be a potential demand management strategy in counteracting bunching, with benefits already attainable at limited RTCI response rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Arkadiusz Drabicki & Rafał Kucharski & Oded Cats, 2023. "Mitigating bus bunching with real-time crowding information," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1003-1030, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:50:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-022-10270-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-022-10270-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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