IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v48y2021i1d10.1007_s11116-019-10050-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Indirect estimation of interregional freight flows with a real-valued genetic algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Rubio-Herrero

    (St. Mary’s University)

  • Jesús Muñuzuri

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

Abstract

This paper introduces a method for estimating the interregional transportation of certain commodities in those cases where the commodity flows are not readily available and only aggregated flows per origin-destination pair are provided. We use a doubly-constrained gravity model to find a matrix of aggregated flows that is as similar as possible to the available data, in the sense of the standardized root mean square error. This model is calibrated via a real-valued genetic algorithm that uses a combination of global and local searches to find a set of optimal parameters of the deterrence function under study in the gravity model. This method is introduced as an application to estimating the disaggregated flows of ten different products among the fifteen regions of peninsular Spain between 2007 and 2016. After testing several formulations, we conclude that an exponential deterrence function calibrated with data from 2010 is as effective to estimate the flows in this 10-year span as other more complex options, which emphasizes the time transferability of our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Rubio-Herrero & Jesús Muñuzuri, 2021. "Indirect estimation of interregional freight flows with a real-valued genetic algorithm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 257-282, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10050-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-019-10050-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-019-10050-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-019-10050-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cabrera Delgado, Jorge & Bonnel, Patrick, 2016. "Level of aggregation of zoning and temporal transferability of the gravity distribution model: The case of Lyon," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 17-26.
    2. Murat Celik, H. & Guldmann, Jean-Michel, 2007. "Spatial interaction modeling of interregional commodity flows," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-162, June.
    3. Louis Grange & Angel Ibeas & Felipe González, 2011. "A Hierarchical Gravity Model with Spatial Correlation: Mathematical Formulation and Parameter Estimation," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 439-463, September.
    4. Mert Kompil & H. Murat Celik, 2013. "Modelling trip distribution with fuzzy and genetic fuzzy systems," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 170-200, April.
    5. Joseph Chow & Choon Yang & Amelia Regan, 2010. "State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(6), pages 1011-1030, November.
    6. Ennio Cascetta & Francesca Pagliara & Andrea Papola, 2007. "Alternative approaches to trip distribution modelling: A retrospective review and suggestions for combining different approaches," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(4), pages 597-620, November.
    7. McArthur, David Philip & Kleppe, Gisle & Thorsen, Inge & Ubøe, Jan, 2011. "The spatial transferability of parameters in a gravity model of commuting flows," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 596-605.
    8. Martínez, L. Miguel & Viegas, José Manuel, 2013. "A new approach to modelling distance-decay functions for accessibility assessment in transport studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 87-96.
    9. Bensassi, Sami & Márquez-Ramos, Laura & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Suárez-Burguet, Celestino, 2015. "Relationship between logistics infrastructure and trade: Evidence from Spanish regional exports," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 47-61.
    10. Adam Dennett & Alan Wilson, 2013. "A Multilevel Spatial Interaction Modelling Framework for Estimating Interregional Migration in Europe," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(6), pages 1491-1507, June.
    11. S Openshaw, 1998. "Neural Network, Genetic, and Fuzzy Logic Models of Spatial Interaction," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(10), pages 1857-1872, October.
    12. Lenormand, Maxime & Bassolas, Aleix & Ramasco, José J., 2016. "Systematic comparison of trip distribution laws and models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 158-169.
    13. Celik, H. Murat, 2010. "Sample size needed for calibrating trip distribution and behavior of the gravity model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 183-190.
    14. Mozolin, M. & Thill, J. -C. & Lynn Usery, E., 2000. "Trip distribution forecasting with multilayer perceptron neural networks: A critical evaluation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-73, January.
    15. Grosche, Tobias & Rothlauf, Franz & Heinzl, Armin, 2007. "Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 175-183.
    16. Sahar Babri & Kurt Jørnsten & Michael Viertel, 2017. "Application of gravity models with a fixed component in the international trade flows of coal, iron ore and crude oil," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(2), pages 334-351, June.
    17. Maxime Lenormand & Sylvie Huet & Floriana Gargiulo & Guillaume Deffuant, 2012. "A Universal Model of Commuting Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-7, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenjie Li & Chun Luo & Yiwei He & Yu Wan & Hongbo Du, 2023. "Estimating Inter-Regional Freight Demand in China Based on the Input–Output Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Javier Rubio-Herrero & Jesús Muñuzuri, 2023. "Sparse regression for data-driven deterrence functions in gravity models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 323(1), pages 153-174, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Rubio-Herrero & Jesús Muñuzuri, 2023. "Sparse regression for data-driven deterrence functions in gravity models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 323(1), pages 153-174, April.
    2. Halás, Marián & Klapka, Pavel & Kladivo, Petr, 2014. "Distance-decay functions for daily travel-to-work flows," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 107-119.
    3. César Ducruet & Hidekazu Itoh & Justin Berli, 2020. "Urban gravity in the global container shipping network," Post-Print halshs-02588449, HAL.
    4. Cordera, Rubén & Sañudo, Roberto & dell’Olio, Luigi & Ibeas, Ángel, 2018. "Trip distribution model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 77-84.
    5. Kerkman, Kasper & Martens, Karel & Meurs, Henk, 2017. "A multilevel spatial interaction model of transit flows incorporating spatial and network autocorrelation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 155-166.
    6. Birolini, Sebastian & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Morlotti, Chiara, 2020. "Integrated origin-based demand modeling for air transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Johari, F. & Peronato, G. & Sadeghian, P. & Zhao, X. & Widén, J., 2020. "Urban building energy modeling: State of the art and future prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Oshan, Taylor M., 2022. "Spatial Interaction Modeling," OSF Preprints m3ah8, Center for Open Science.
    9. Cabrera Delgado, Jorge & Bonnel, Patrick, 2016. "Level of aggregation of zoning and temporal transferability of the gravity distribution model: The case of Lyon," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 17-26.
    10. Kavta, Kuldeep & Bösehans, Gustav & Bell, Margaret Carol & Liao, Fanchao & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & Dissanayake, Dilum, 2024. "Assessing the spatial transferability of mode choice models: A case of shared electric mobility hubs (eHUBS) in Amsterdam and Manchester," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 101-111.
    11. Ducruet, César & Itoh, Hidekazu & Berli, Justin, 2020. "Urban gravity in the global container shipping network," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Inho Hong & Woo-Sung Jung & Hang-Hyun Jo, 2019. "Gravity model explained by the radiation model on a population landscape," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Šveda, Martin & Madajová, Michala Sládeková, 2023. "Estimating distance decay of intra-urban trips using mobile phone data: The case of Bratislava, Slovakia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    14. Vaezi, Ali & Verma, Manish, 2018. "Railroad transportation of crude oil in Canada: Developing long-term forecasts, and evaluating the impact of proposed pipeline projects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 98-111.
    15. Önsel Ekici, Şule & Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun, 2019. "Improving logistics performance by reforming the pillars of Global Competitiveness Index," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-207.
    16. Barro, Diana & Basso, Antonella, 2010. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 459-468, September.
    17. Wessel, Jan, 2019. "Evaluating the transport-mode-specific trade effects of different transport infrastructure types," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-57.
    18. Tranos, Emmanouil & Incera, Andre Carrascal & Willis, George, 2022. "Using the web to predict regional trade flows: data extraction, modelling, and validation," OSF Preprints 9bu5z, Center for Open Science.
    19. Zuo, Chengchoa & Birkin, Mark & Clarke, Graham & McEvoy, Fiona & Bloodworth, Andrew, 2018. "Reducing carbon emissions related to the transportation of aggregates: Is road or rail the solution?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 26-38.
    20. Ghadiri, Mehdi & Rassafi, Amir Abbas & Mirbaha, Babak, 2019. "The effects of traffic zoning with regular geometric shapes on the precision of trip production models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 150-159.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10050-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.