IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/sbusec/v53y2019i1d10.1007_s11187-018-0111-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: sometimes worse than the toss of a coin

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Konon

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Alexander S. Kritikos

    (DIW Berlin
    University of Potsdam
    IZA
    IAB)

Abstract

The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices—from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method should be applied if information on personality traits is used for prediction and advice? In psychological research, group profiles are widely employed. In this contribution, we examine the performance of profiles using the example of career prediction and advice, involving a comparison of average trait scores of successful entrepreneurs with the traits of potential entrepreneurs. Based on a simple theoretical model estimated with GSOEP data and analyzed with Monte Carlo methods, we show, for the first time, that the choice of the comparison method matters substantially. We reveal that under certain conditions the performance of average profiles is inferior to the tossing of a coin. Alternative methods, such as directly estimating success probabilities, deliver better performance and are more robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Konon & Alexander S. Kritikos, 2019. "Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: sometimes worse than the toss of a coin," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:53:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11187-018-0111-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Helmers & Mark Rogers, 2010. "Innovation and the Survival of New Firms in the UK," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 36(3), pages 227-248, May.
    2. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank & Kritikos, Alexander, 2010. "The impact of risk attitudes on entrepreneurial survival," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 45-63, October.
    3. Bosma, Niels & Hessels, Jolanda & Schutjens, Veronique & Praag, Mirjam Van & Verheul, Ingrid, 2012. "Entrepreneurship and role models," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 410-424.
    4. Francesco Quatraro & Marco Vivarelli, 2015. "Drivers of Entrepreneurship and Post-entry Performance of Newborn Firms in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 277-305.
    5. Blanchflower, David G., 2000. "Self-employment in OECD countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 471-505, September.
    6. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    7. Åstebro, Thomas & Chen, Jing, 2014. "The entrepreneurial earnings puzzle: Mismeasurement or real?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 88-105.
    8. repec:use:tkiwps:332 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lex Borghans & Angela Lee Duckworth & James J. Heckman & Bas ter Weel, 2008. "The Economics and Psychology of Personality Traits," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
    10. Marco Caliendo & Frank Fossen & Alexander Kritikos, 2014. "Personality characteristics and the decisions to become and stay self-employed," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 787-814, April.
    11. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Tina Xu, 2017. "Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stuetzer, Michael & Goethner, Maximilian & Cantner, Uwe, 2012. "Do balanced skills help nascent entrepreneurs to make progress in the venture creation process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 186-188.
    13. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    14. Martin Obschonka & Eva Schmitt-Rodermund & Rainer K. Silbereisen & Samuel D. Gosling & Jeff Potter, 2013. "The Regional Distribution and Correlates of an Entrepreneurship-Prone Personality Profile in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom: A Socioecological Perspective," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 550, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    15. William R. Kerr & Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2014. "Entrepreneurship as Experimentation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 25-48, Summer.
    16. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-748, August.
    17. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    18. Gustavo Manso, 2016. "Experimentation and the Returns to Entrepreneurship," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(9), pages 2319-2340.
    19. Martin Obschonka & Michael Stuetzer, 2017. "Integrating psychological approaches to entrepreneurship: the Entrepreneurial Personality System (EPS)," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 203-231, June.
    20. Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1990. "A Theory of Entrepreneurship and Its Application to the Study of Business Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 265-294, April.
    21. Begley, Thomas M. & Boyd, David P., 1987. "Psychological characteristics associated with performence in entrepreneurial firms and smaller businesses," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 79-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank M. & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2022. "Personality characteristics and the decision to hire," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 736-761.
    2. Runst, Petrik & Thomä, Jörg, 2022. "Resilient entrepreneurs? Revisiting the relationship between the Big Five and self-employment," ifh Working Papers 34/2022, Volkswirtschaftliches Institut für Mittelstand und Handwerk an der Universität Göttingen (ifh).
    3. Insoo Cho & Peter F. Orazem, 2021. "How endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1309-1332, April.
    4. Petrik Runst & Jörg Thomä, 2023. "Resilient entrepreneurs? — revisiting the relationship between the Big Five and self-employment," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 417-443, June.
    5. Newbert, Scott L. & Kher, Romi & Yang, Shu, 2022. "Now that's interesting and important! Moving beyond averages to increase the inferential value of empirical findings in entrepreneurship research," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(2).
    6. Elena-Loreni Baciu & Delia Vîrgă & Theofild-Andrei Lazăr, 2020. "What Characteristics Help Entrepreneurs ‘Make It’ Early on in Their Entrepreneurial Careers? Findings of a Regional Study from Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-27, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Konon & Alexander Kritikos, 2018. "Prediction Based on Entrepreneurship-Prone Personality Profiles: Sometimes Worse Than the Toss of a Coin," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1012, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Konon, Alexander, 2015. "Personality traits, subjective learning, and entrepreneurial decision making," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112805, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Marco Caliendo & Frank M Fossen & Alexander S Kritikos, 2022. "Personality characteristics and the decision to hire [Do the unemployed become successful entrepreneurs?]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 736-761.
    4. Alina Sorgner & Michael Fritsch & Alexander Kritikos, 2017. "Do entrepreneurs really earn less?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 251-272, August.
    5. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Tina Xu, 2017. "Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Konon, Alexander, 2016. "Career choice under uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145583, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Elena-Loreni Baciu & Delia Vîrgă & Theofild-Andrei Lazăr, 2020. "What Characteristics Help Entrepreneurs ‘Make It’ Early on in Their Entrepreneurial Careers? Findings of a Regional Study from Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-27, June.
    8. Marco Caliendo & Alexander S. Kritikos & Daniel Rodríguez & Claudia Stier, 2023. "Self-efficacy and entrepreneurial performance of start-ups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1051, October.
    9. Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo & Sandrina B. Moreira, 2016. "Individual Determinants Of Self-Employment Entry: What Do We Really Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 783-806, September.
    10. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2018. "Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment," NBER Working Papers 25350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    12. Konon, Alexander & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2017. "Media and Occupational Choice," IZA Discussion Papers 11015, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Bühler, Dorothee & Sharma, Rasadhika & Stein, Wiebke, 2020. "Occupational Attainment and Earnings in Southeast Asia: The Role of Non-cognitive Skills," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Simon Parker, 2014. "Who become serial and portfolio entrepreneurs?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 887-898, December.
    15. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich & Martin Obschonka, 2018. "Historical Roots of Entrepreneurial Culture and Innovation Activity - An Analysis for German Regions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Marek Kośny & Maria Piotrowska, 2019. "Economic Resourcefulness: Definition and Modeling," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 425-449, July.
    17. Huber, Laura Rosendahl & Sloof, Randolph & Van Praag, Mirjam, 2014. "The effect of early entrepreneurship education: Evidence from a field experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 76-97.
    18. Shaw, Kathryn & Sørensen, Anders, 2022. "Coming of age: Watching young entrepreneurs become successful," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Pushkar Maitra & Ananta Neelim, 2021. "Behavioural characteristics, stability of preferences and entrepreneurial success," Chapters, in: Ananish Chaudhuri (ed.), A Research Agenda for Experimental Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-118, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Petrik Runst & Jörg Thomä, 2023. "Resilient entrepreneurs? — revisiting the relationship between the Big Five and self-employment," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 417-443, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Advice; Personality; Entrepreneurship; Profiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:53:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11187-018-0111-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.