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Ethnic fertility and exposure to armed conflict: the case of Sri Lanka

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  • Manasvi Sharma

    (University of California)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of exposure to armed conflict on fertility in Sri Lanka. Using a difference-in-difference methodology, I find that exposure to civil war led to a reduction in female fertility in Sri Lanka, with evidence of an increased female age at marriage in high-conflict districts as a mechanism. The paper further focuses on ethnic disparities in demographic adjustments triggered by exposure to conflict. It determines if conflict altered the fertility patterns of the Sinhalese majority and the Sri Lankan Tamil minority differently. Estimates suggest that there is a differential in fertility adjustments of the two ethnic groups in response to conflict: the reduction in crude birth rate was significantly smaller for the Sri Lankan Tamils compared to the Sinhalese across various model specifications. The presence of an ethnic group-level replacement effect led to a lesser reduction in fertility for Sri Lankan Tamils. These results contribute to the literature on the impact of armed conflict and underscore the importance of studying demographic adjustments by sub-groups, specifically ethnicity in this context, as the intensity of adjustment often varies with the socio-political vulnerability of the group. Understanding these disparities is crucial as a sustained demographic differential has the potential to impact the ethnic composition of Sri Lanka and may further crystallize the ethnic divide in an already volatile political setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Manasvi Sharma, 2024. "Ethnic fertility and exposure to armed conflict: the case of Sri Lanka," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1317-1351, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:22:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11150-024-09703-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11150-024-09703-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Armed conflict; Ethnicity; Replacement effect; Age at marriage; Sri Lanka;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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