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Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France

Author

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  • Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Abstract

During World War I the birth rate in France fell by 50%. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91% of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income associated with the risk that a wife remains alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2014. "Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 108-136, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:108-36
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.2.108
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2007. "Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 969-1006.
    3. Ran Abramitzky & Adeline Delavande & Luis Vasconcelos, 2011. "Marrying Up: The Role of Sex Ratio in Assortative Matching," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 124-157, July.
    4. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    5. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1984_39n6_1010 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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    1. Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France (AEJ:MA 2014) in ReplicationWiki
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