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Elemental tests of the traditional rational voting model

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  • Darren Grant
  • Michael Toma

Abstract

A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bellcurved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of union certification elections, which often end in ties, yields exacting, lucid tests of the theory. Voter turnout is strongly related to election closeness, but not in the way predicted by the theory. Thus, this relation is generated by some other mechanism, which is indeterminate, as no existing theory explains the nonlinear patterns of turnout in the data.
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Suggested Citation

  • Darren Grant & Michael Toma, 2008. "Elemental tests of the traditional rational voting model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 173-195, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:137:y:2008:i:1:p:173-195
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-008-9319-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Cebula & Franklin Mixon, 2012. "Dodging the vote?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 325-343, February.
    2. Grant, Darren, 2016. "The essential economics of threshold-based incentives: Theory, estimation, and evidence from the Western States 100," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 180-197.
    3. Mei-yin Lin & Yi-ting Tseng & Jue-shyan Wang, 2011. "Closeness and Turnout: Evidence from Election of Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1922-1928.
    4. Johan A Elkink & Sarah Parlane & Thomas Sattler, 2020. "When one side stays home: A joint model of turnout and vote choice," Working Papers 202012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational voter model; Union certification election; Structural modeling; D72; L59; C14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L59 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Other
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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