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Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models

Author

Listed:
  • Inmaculada C. Álvarez

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, and Oviedo Efficiency Group)

  • Luis Orea

    (University of Oviedo and Oviedo Efficiency Group)

  • Alan Wall

    (University of Oviedo and Oviedo Efficiency Group)

Abstract

We use a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to model the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic across geographical areas. The proposed models permit reported and undocumented cases to be estimated, which is important as case counts are overwhelmingly believed to be undercounted. The models can be estimated using only epidemic-type data but are flexible enough to permit these reporting rates to vary across geographical cross-section units of observation. We provide an empirical application of our models to Spanish data corresponding to the initial months of the original outbreak of the virus in early 2020. We find remarkable rates of under-reporting that might explain why the Spanish Government took its time to implement strict mitigation strategies. We also provide insights into the effectiveness of the national and regional lockdown measures and the influence of socio-economic factors in the propagation of the virus.

Suggested Citation

  • Inmaculada C. Álvarez & Luis Orea & Alan Wall, 2023. "Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 259-279, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:59:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11123-023-00664-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11123-023-00664-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Danelon, André F. & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2023. "Estimating COVID-19 under-reporting through stochastic frontier analysis and official statistics: A case study of São Paulo State, Brazil," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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