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The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19

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  • Cooper, Daniel
  • Garga, Vaishali
  • Luengo-Prado, María José
  • Tang, Jenny

Abstract

We use US state-level data from early in the pandemic —March 15, 2020 to November 15, 2020— to estimate the effects of mask mandates and compliance with mandates on Covid-19 cases and deaths, conditional on mobility. A one-standard-deviation increase in mobility is associated with a 6 to 20 percent increase in the cases growth rate; a mask mandate can offset about one third of this increase with our most conservative estimates. Also, mask mandates are more effective in states with higher compliance. Given realized mobility, our estimates imply that total infections in the US on November 15, 2020 would have been 23.7 to 30.4 percent lower if a national mask mandate had been enacted on May 15, 2020. This reduction in cases translates to a 25 to 35 percent smaller decline in aggregate hours worked over the same period relative to a 2019 baseline.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:48:y:2023:i:c:s1570677x22000910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 cases and deaths; Mobility; Mask wearing; Mask mandates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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