IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ehbiol/v48y2023ics1570677x22000910.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Cooper, Daniel
  • Garga, Vaishali
  • Luengo-Prado, María José
  • Tang, Jenny

Abstract

We use US state-level data from early in the pandemic —March 15, 2020 to November 15, 2020— to estimate the effects of mask mandates and compliance with mandates on Covid-19 cases and deaths, conditional on mobility. A one-standard-deviation increase in mobility is associated with a 6 to 20 percent increase in the cases growth rate; a mask mandate can offset about one third of this increase with our most conservative estimates. Also, mask mandates are more effective in states with higher compliance. Given realized mobility, our estimates imply that total infections in the US on November 15, 2020 would have been 23.7 to 30.4 percent lower if a national mask mandate had been enacted on May 15, 2020. This reduction in cases translates to a 25 to 35 percent smaller decline in aggregate hours worked over the same period relative to a 2019 baseline.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:48:y:2023:i:c:s1570677x22000910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X22000910
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101195?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kovacs, Roxanne & Dunaiski, Maurice & Tukiainen, Janne, 2020. "Compulsory face mask policies do not affect community mobility in Germany," EconStor Preprints 218945, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
    3. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124130, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Luis Orea & Inmaculada C. Álvarez, 2022. "How effective has the Spanish lockdown been to battle COVID‐19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 154-173, January.
    7. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    8. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "When Do Shelter‐In‐Place Orders Fight Covid‐19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States And Adoption Time," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 29-52, January.
    9. Dube, Arindrajit & Zipperer, Ben, 2015. "Pooling Multiple Case Studies Using Synthetic Controls: An Application to Minimum Wage Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 8944, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Karaivanov, Alexander & Lu, Shih En & Shigeoka, Hitoshi & Chen, Cong & Pamplona, Stephanie, 2021. "Face masks, public policies and slowing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel & Jann Spiess, 2021. "Revisiting Event Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation," Papers 2108.12419, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    12. Durante, Ruben & Guiso, Luigi & Gulino, Giorgio, 2021. "Asocial capital: Civic culture and social distancing during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Reinhold Kosfeld & Timo Mitze & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2021. "The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 799-825, September.
    14. Chernozhukov, Victor & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Schrimpf, Paul, 2021. "Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 23-62.
    15. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    16. Kosfeld, Reinhold & Mitze, Timo & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2021. "The Covid-19 containment effects of public health measures - A spatial difference-in-differences approach," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 126127, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    17. Milosh, Maria & Painter, Marcus & Sonin, Konstantin & Van Dijcke, David & Wright, Austin L., 2021. "Unmasking partisanship: Polarization undermines public response to collective risk," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    18. Pierre Nouvellet & Sangeeta Bhatia & Anne Cori & Kylie E. C. Ainslie & Marc Baguelin & Samir Bhatt & Adhiratha Boonyasiri & Nicholas F. Brazeau & Lorenzo Cattarino & Laura V. Cooper & Helen Coupland &, 2021. "Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    20. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    21. Adam Brzezinski & Valentin Kecht & David Van Dijcke & Austin L. Wright, 2020. "Belief in Science Influences Physical Distancing in Response to COVID-19 Lockdown Policies," Working Papers 2020-56, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    22. Frank Schlosser & Benjamin F. Maier & Olivia Jack & David Hinrichs & Adrian Zachariae & Dirk Brockmann, 2020. "COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 32883-32890, December.
    23. Desmet, Klaus & Wacziarg, Romain, 2022. "JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    24. Rachel E. Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel A. Vecchi & C. Jessica E. Metcalf & Bryan T. Grenfell, 2021. "Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    25. Alberto Abadie & Jérémy L’Hour, 2021. "A Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1817-1834, October.
    26. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina & Rivera-Garrido, Noelia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2021. "Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    27. Daniel J. Wilson, 2020. "Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19," Working Paper Series 2020-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    2. Daniel H. Cooper & Vaishali Garga & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Jenny Tang, 2020. "The Roles of Mobility and Masks in the Spread of COVID-19," Current Policy Perspectives 89224, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Martin Huber & Henrika Langen, 2020. "Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Austin L. Wright & Geet Chawla & Luke Chen & Anthony Farmer, 2020. "Tracking Mask Mandates during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-104, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    6. Léa BOU SLEIMAN & Germain GAUTHIER, 2020. "COVID-19: Reduced forms have gone viral, but what do they tell us?," Working Papers 2020-32, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 18 Jan 2021.
    7. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano, 2022. "When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(1), pages 181-195, March.
    8. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
    9. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce Covid-19 Cases in Germany - A Synthetic Control Method Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8479, CESifo.
    10. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    11. Bonander, Carl & Ekman, Mats & Jakobsson, Niklas, 2022. "Vaccination nudges: A study of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccinations in Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    12. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
    13. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    14. Justin Wiltshire, 2021. "allsynth: Synthetic control bias-corrections utilities for Stata," 2021 Stata Conference 15, Stata Users Group.
    15. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Cheng, Hao-Sen, 2021. "The impact mechanism of the ETS on CO2 emissions from the service sector: Evidence from Beijing and Shanghai," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    16. Seres, Gyula & Balleyer, Anna & Cerutti, Nicola & Friedrichsen, Jana & Süer, Müge, 2021. "Face mask use and physical distancing before and after mandatory masking: No evidence on risk compensation in public waiting lines," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 765-781.
    17. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    18. Germain Gauthier, 2021. "On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Models for Policy Evaluation During Pandemics," Papers 2106.10949, arXiv.org.
    19. Emery, Thomas & Mélon, Lela & Spruk, Rok, 2023. "Does e-procurement matter for economic growth? Subnational evidence from Australia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 318-334.
    20. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 cases and deaths; Mobility; Mask wearing; Mask mandates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:48:y:2023:i:c:s1570677x22000910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622964 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.