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When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Author

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  • Augusto Cerqua

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Roberta Di Stefano

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

Abstract

The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.

Suggested Citation

  • Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano, 2022. "When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(1), pages 181-195, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:31:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10260-021-00568-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4
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    1. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J R Elliott & Bowen Liu, 2020. "The Impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution and Health: A Machine Learning and Augmented Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 553-580, August.
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    3. Franco Peracchi & Daniele Terlizzese, 2020. "Estimating the prevalence of the COVID-19 infection, with an application to Italy," EIEF Working Papers Series 2013, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
    4. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    7. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
    8. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
    2. G. Alleva & G. Arbia & P. D. Falorsi & V. Nardelli & A. Zuliani, 2023. "Optimal two-stage spatial sampling design for estimating critical parameters of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: Efficiency versus feasibility," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(3), pages 983-999, September.
    3. Magdalena Kachniewska & Anna Para, 2023. "Feminine vs. Masculine: Expectations of Leadership Styles in Hotels during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2022. "Untimely Reopening? Increase in the Number of New COVID‐19 Cases After Reopening in One Brazilian State," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 675-693, August.
    5. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    6. Fabrizio Cedrone & Giuseppe Buomprisco & Mucci Nicola & Giuseppe La Torre & Hector Nieto & Roberto Perri & Vincenzo Montagna & Emilio Greco & Simone De Sio, 2022. "Alcohol Use during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey among Healthcare and Office Workers in Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-10, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Europe; Counterfactual approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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