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When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Author

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  • Augusto Cerqua

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Roberta Di Stefano

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

Abstract

The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.

Suggested Citation

  • Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano, 2022. "When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(1), pages 181-195, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:31:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10260-021-00568-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4
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    5. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
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    7. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2022. "Untimely Reopening? Increase in the Number of New COVID‐19 Cases After Reopening in One Brazilian State," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 675-693, August.
    2. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    3. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
    4. G. Alleva & G. Arbia & P. D. Falorsi & V. Nardelli & A. Zuliani, 2023. "Optimal two-stage spatial sampling design for estimating critical parameters of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: Efficiency versus feasibility," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(3), pages 983-999, September.
    5. Magdalena Kachniewska & Anna Para, 2023. "Feminine vs. Masculine: Expectations of Leadership Styles in Hotels during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Fabrizio Cedrone & Giuseppe Buomprisco & Mucci Nicola & Giuseppe La Torre & Hector Nieto & Roberto Perri & Vincenzo Montagna & Emilio Greco & Simone De Sio, 2022. "Alcohol Use during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey among Healthcare and Office Workers in Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-10, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Europe; Counterfactual approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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