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The black box of regional growth

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Grillitsch

    (Lund University
    CIRCLE – Centre for Innovation Research, Lund University)

  • Mikhail Martynovich

    (Lund University)

  • Rune Dahl Fitjar

    (University of Stavanger)

  • Silje Haus-Reve

    (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Grillitsch & Mikhail Martynovich & Rune Dahl Fitjar & Silje Haus-Reve, 2021. "The black box of regional growth," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 425-464, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:23:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10109-020-00341-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3
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    2. Zoltan Elekes & Anna Baranowska-Rataj & Rikard Eriksson, 2021. "Local access to skill-related high-income jobs facilitates career advancement for low-wage workers," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2136, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Nov 2021.
    3. Zoltan Elekes & Gergo Toth & Rikard Eriksson, 2023. "Robust labour-flow networks of industries make resilient regions," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2311, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised May 2023.
    4. Grillitsch, Markus & Sotarauta, Markku & Asheim, Björn & Fitjar, Rune Dahl & Haus-Reve, Silje & Kolehmainen, Jari & Kurikka, Heli & Lundquist, Karl-Johan & Martynovich, Mikhail & Monteilhet, Skirmante, 2022. "Agency and Economic Change in Regions: Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify Routes to New Path Development," Papers in Innovation Studies 2022/5, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    5. Martin Ron & Sunley Peter, 2022. "Making history matter more in evolutionary economic geography," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 66(2), pages 65-80, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional development; Regional growth models; Path-dependency; Case selection methodology; Residual analysis; Outlier regions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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