IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/fmktpm/v24y2010i1p67-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic capital for nonperforming loans

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Weißbach
  • Carsten Lieres und Wilkau

Abstract

A portfolio of nonperforming loans requires economic capital. We present two models for forecasting the portfolio loss and its probability distribution. In the first model, the loss for each nonperforming loan entails a change in provision over the risk horizon. The risk determinants are the single-name concentration, measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index, as well as a systematic factor and the idiosyncratic risk. Our second model allows for interportfolio diversification with a portfolio of performing loans because banks typically own both performing and nonperforming loans. In this model, the nonperforming loan is identified with its systematic risk. Both models allow for closed-form expressions of economic capital and for the capital charge of the single loan. We calibrate the macroeconomic model parameters statistically with a loss panel; the microeconomic parameters depend on the portfolio. The portfolio risk for nonperforming loans mainly depends on the volatility of the systematic economic factor. The dependence becomes more pronounced when interportfolio diversification is taken into account. The magnitude of interportfolio diversification is also marked. Finally, we calculate regulatory capital charges according to Basel II for past-due loans. The regulatory charges are on average smaller than our economic charges and, additionally, take the volatility of economic activity into account only implicitly. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Weißbach & Carsten Lieres und Wilkau, 2010. "Economic capital for nonperforming loans," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(1), pages 67-85, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:67-85
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-009-0121-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-009-0121-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11408-009-0121-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2002. "The link between default and recovery rates: effects on the procyclicality of regulatory capital ratios," BIS Working Papers 113, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Klein, Roger W. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1976. "The effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 215-231, June.
    3. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 1998. "Bank Capitalization And Cost: Evidence Of Scale Economies In Risk Management And Signaling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 314-325, May.
    4. Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-278, July.
    5. Rafael Weißbach & Patrick Tschiersch & Claudia Lawrenz, 2009. "Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 575-596, June.
    6. Dirk Tasche, 2004. "The single risk factor approach to capital charges in case of correlated loss given default rates," Papers cond-mat/0402390, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    7. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March.
    8. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1363-1387 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weißbach, Rafael & von Lieres und Wilkau, Carsten, 2006. "On partial defaults in portfolio credit risk: Comparing economic and regulatory view," Technical Reports 2006,02, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    2. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2005. "The econometrics of efficient portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-41, January.
    3. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    4. Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2007. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 41-81, January.
    5. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
    6. Klaas P. Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, 2001. "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 45-85, February.
    7. Arthur Charpentier & Abder Oulidi, 2009. "Estimating allocations for Value-at-Risk portfolio optimization," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 69(3), pages 395-410, July.
    8. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    9. Kouaissah, Noureddine, 2023. "Robust reward-risk performance measures with weakly second-order stochastic dominance constraints," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 53-62.
    10. Kellerer, Belinda, 2019. "Portfolio Optimization and Ambiguity Aversion," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 4(3), pages 305-338.
    11. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1994. "The Empirical Minimum-Variance Hedge," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 94-104.
    12. Huang, Zhenzhen & Wei, Pengyu & Weng, Chengguo, 2024. "Tail mean-variance portfolio selection with estimation risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 218-234.
    13. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2001. "Portfolio allocation in transition economies," HEC Research Papers Series 740, HEC Paris.
    14. Xiaolou Yang, 2006. "Improving Portfolio Efficiency: A Genetic Algorithm Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 1-14, August.
    15. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    16. Andrew F. Siegel & Artemiza Woodgate, 2007. "Performance of Portfolios Optimized with Estimation Error," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 1005-1015, June.
    17. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2012. "The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 645-677, October.
    18. Topaloglou, Nikolas & Vladimirou, Hercules & Zenios, Stavros A., 2002. "CVaR models with selective hedging for international asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1535-1561, July.
    19. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Horses for courses: Mean-variance for asset allocation and 1/N for stock selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 302-317.
    20. Frahm, Gabriel & Wiechers, Christof, 2011. "On the diversification of portfolios of risky assets," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 2/11, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic capital; Regulatory capital; Nonperforming loan; Recovery; Loss given default; C51; G11; G18; G33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:67-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.