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Heat in the Heartland: Crop Yield and Coverage Response to Climate Change Along the Mississippi River

Author

Listed:
  • Lunyu Xie

    (Department of Energy Economics, School of Economics, Renmin University of China)

  • Sarah M. Lewis

    (Envision Geo LLC)

  • Maximilian Auffhammer

    (University of California)

  • Peter Berck

    (University of California)

Abstract

Farmers may adapt to climate change by substituting away from the crops most severely affected. In this paper we estimate the substitution caused by a moderate change in climate in the US Midwest. We pair a 10-year panel of satellite-based crop coverage with spatially explicit soil data and a fine-scale weather data set. Combining a proportion type model with local regressions, we simultaneously address the econometric issues of proportion dependent variables and spatial correlation of unobserved factors. We find the change in expected crop coverage and then we link those changes to the expected changes from an estimated climate dependent yield equation. Ceteris paribus, we find that climate induced changes in yield are offset by land coverage changes for rice and cotton but they are strongly amplified for corn and soy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lunyu Xie & Sarah M. Lewis & Maximilian Auffhammer & Peter Berck, 2019. "Heat in the Heartland: Crop Yield and Coverage Response to Climate Change Along the Mississippi River," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 485-513, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:73:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-018-0271-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-018-0271-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Harris, Lena, 2024. "Farmer response to policy induced water reductions: Evidence from the Colorado River," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Yabin Da & Yangyang Xu & Bruce McCarl, 2022. "Effects of Surface Ozone and Climate on Historical (1980–2015) Crop Yields in the United States: Implication for Mid-21st Century Projection," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 81(2), pages 355-378, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptation; Climate change; Crop choice; Yield; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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