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Population Aging and Potential Growth in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Keisuke Otsu

    (Lecturer in Macroeconomics and Growth and Deputy Director of Macroeconomics Growth and History Centre, School of Economics, University of Kent, United Kingdom)

  • Katsuyuki Shibayama

    (Lecturer in Economics, School of Economics and Macro-economics, Growth, and History Centre, University of Kent, United Kingdom)

Abstract

We study the effects of projected population aging on potential growth in Asian economies over the period 2015–2050. We find that an increase in the share of the population over 64 years of age will significantly lower output growth through decreased labor participation. Population aging can also reduce economic growth through increased labor income taxes and dampened productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Keisuke Otsu & Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2016. "Population Aging and Potential Growth in Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(2), pages 56-73, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:adbadr:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:56-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhonghua Liu & Shuang Zhang & Huihui Zhang & Xiuxiu Li, 2024. "A Study on Caregiver Activity Recognition for the Elderly at Home Based on the XGBoost Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Siow Li Lai & Tien Ming Yip, 2022. "The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1875-1912, August.
    3. Tran, Quang-Thanh, 2022. "The aging tax on potential growth in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Otsu, Keisuke & Shibayama, Katsuyuki, 2022. "Population aging, government policy and the postwar Japanese economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Yuan-Ho Hsu & Hiroshi Yoshida & Fengming Chen, 2022. "The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 105-130, January.
    6. Evsey T. Gurvich & Maria A. Ivanova, 2018. "Economic Effect of Population Ageing and Pension Reforms," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 9-22, October.
    7. Savelieva Galina & Zaharov Svetlana, 2024. "Impact of Economic Factors on the Process of Population Transition from Labour Activity to Pension in the Republic of Moldova," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 47-72.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; population aging;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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