IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v31y2004i2p247-280.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Leo Kaas

Abstract

According to the traditional “optimum currency area” approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate in the past. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may also signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is analyzed, revealing that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly lowers employment growth. Hence, eliminating exchange rate volatility could be considered a substitute for removing employment protection legislation. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:247-280
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-004-0886-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-004-0886-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-004-0886-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurel, Mathilde & Boone, Laurence & Babetski, Jan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity," CEPR Discussion Papers 929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2002. "Designing EU–US Atlantic Monetary Relations: Exchange Rate Variability and Labour Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 789-813, June.
    6. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    7. repec:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002-07:i:2:p:419-444 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    9. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "A note on the Anderson-Hsiao estimator for panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 337-341, December.
    10. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July.
    11. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
    12. Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 47-54, January.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. De Grauwe, Paul, 1987. "International trade and economic growth in the european monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 389-398.
    15. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
    16. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    17. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-134, Winter.
    18. Dmitri Boreiko, 2003. "EMU and accession countries: Fuzzy cluster analysis of membership," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 309-325.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    20. André Sapir & Khalid Sekkat, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: the effects of the European monetary system," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8228, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    21. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    22. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Dollarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 381-385, May.
    23. Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged Europe," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 49(1), pages 103-121.
    24. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Melitz, Jacques, 1995. "The current impasse in research on optimum currency areas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 492-500, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. F. V. Vieira & M. Holland & C. Gomes da Silva & L. C. Bottecchia, 2013. "Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3733-3741, September.
    3. Demir, Firat, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1127-1140, August.
    4. Gunther Schnabl & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime and Wage Determination in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2471, CESifo.
    5. Chama CHIPETA & Daniel Francois MEYER, 2018. "Trade Openness, FDI and Exchange Rate Effects on Job Creation in South Africa's Tradable Sectors," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 197-212.
    6. repec:eid:wpaper:01/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chipeta Chama & Meyer Daniel Francois & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2017. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Growth on Job Creation," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 20-41, August.
    8. Ojonugwa Usman & Osama Mohammed Elsalih, 2018. "Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    9. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.
    10. Gilles Saint-Paul, 2009. "Le dollar, l’innovation et l’emploi," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 107-115.
    11. Anubha Dhasmana, 2021. "Employment growth in the face of exchange rate uncertainty: The role of trade and foreign equity finance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 79-117, July.
    12. Feldmann, Horst, 2011. "The unemployment effect of exchange rate volatility in industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 268-271, June.
    13. Aderbal Oliveira Damasceno & Flávio Vilela Vieir, 2014. "Desalinhamento Cambial, Volatilidade Cambial E Crescimento Econômico: Uma Análise Para A Economia Brasileira (1995-2011)," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 100, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Drazen Derado & Antonela Mlikota, 2007. "Is Croatia Ready For The Emu?: An Ex Ante Analysis Of Nominal And Real Convergence," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 16(2), pages 113-146, december.
    15. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "Monetary technocracy and democratic accountability: how central bank independence conditions economic voting," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 939-964, May.
    16. Oğuz Tümtürk, 2022. "Global Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 69-84, December.
    17. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Beyond Trade – Is Reform Effort Affected by the Exchange Rate Regime? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 29-58.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1056, CESifo.
    2. Ansgar Belke, 2002. "EU Enlargement, Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 213/2002, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labour Markets - Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 267-292.
    4. BELKE Ansgar & SETZER Ralph, 2010. "The Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labor Markets: Some Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," EcoMod2003 330700012, EcoMod.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour leuroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-175, June.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Contagion, herding and exchange-rate instability — A survey," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 39(4), pages 222-228, July.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2003. "The Cost of Financial Market Variability in the Southern Cone," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1091-1115.
    10. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
    11. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    13. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    14. Feldmann, Horst, 2011. "The unemployment effect of exchange rate volatility in industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 268-271, June.
    15. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    16. Ansgar Belke & Kai Geisslreither & Daniel Gros, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Southern Cone," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(122), pages 35-64.
    17. repec:eid:wpaper:01/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jerome Creel & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2003. "Inflation divergence and public deficits in a monetary union," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2003-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    19. Charles Engel & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems," BIS Working Papers 805, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:247-280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.