IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/avo/emipdu/v16y2007i2p113-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Croatia Ready For The Emu?: An Ex Ante Analysis Of Nominal And Real Convergence

Author

Listed:
  • Drazen Derado

    (University of Split)

  • Antonela Mlikota

    (MICRO projekt d.o.o.)

Abstract

The EU-enlargement and the advanced process of economic integration have brought attention to monetary integration and the conditions for its successful functioning. The main theoretical framework of the analysis – the OCA-theory – foresees three main requirements for that – mobility of production factors, fiscal solidarity and trade integration. Although not theoretically founded, the Maastricht criteria of price and exchange rate stability, balanced public finance and long-term interest rates should contribute to successful monetary integration in the EU which faces inter-regional differences in the level of development and the possibility of external shocks. The analysis of nominal convergence shows that Croatia approaches the reference values of the EU and achieves a high degree of macroeconomic stability. However, it lags behind the successful new EU-member states in respect of trade integration and production structure similarity which can be regarded as important indicators of the long-term advantages of monetary integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Drazen Derado & Antonela Mlikota, 2007. "Is Croatia Ready For The Emu?: An Ex Ante Analysis Of Nominal And Real Convergence," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 16(2), pages 113-146, december.
    • Handle: RePEc:avo:emipdu:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:113-146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/index.php/clanak/33586
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    3. Antonio Aquino, 1978. "Intra-industry trade and inter-industry specialization as concurrent sources of International Trade in manufactures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(2), pages 275-296, June.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
    5. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Currency Areas in Theory and Practice," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 166-176, June.
    6. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    7. Vasily Astrov, 2001. "Structure of Trade in Manufactured Products Between Southeast European Countries and the European Union," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 14, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2006. "How Do Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interact in the European Monetary Union?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 241-326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dmitri Boreiko, 2003. "EMU and accession countries: Fuzzy cluster analysis of membership," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 309-325.
    10. Allen, Steven G, 1992. "Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 122-140, March.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Hugh Rockoff, 1999. "How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?," Departmental Working Papers 199910, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    13. François Mann-Quirici, 2005. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria – lessons from history for European monetary union," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 387-405, October.
    14. José Blanes & Carmela Martín, 2000. "The nature and causes of intra-industry trade: Back to the comparative advantage explanation? The case of Spain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(3), pages 423-441, September.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Selahattin Dibooglu & Julius Horvath, 1997. "Optimum Currency Areas And European Monetary Unification," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 37-49, January.
    17. Angeloni, Ignazio & Flad, Michael & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of New Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    18. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drazen Derado, 2009. "Financial Integration and Financial Crisis: Croatia Approaching The EMU," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 299-328.
    2. Joanna Tyrowicz, 2007. "The OCA Theory and Its Empirical Application for the EMU," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 45-60.
    3. Henryk Bak & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(6), pages 523-564.
    4. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2009. "A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    7. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    8. Sergey Drobyshevsky & Dmitri Polevoy, 2004. "Problems Associated with Creation of a Single Currency Zone in the CIS Countries," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 80P, pages 110-110.
    9. Dumitru, Ionut, 2009. "Adoptarea euro in Romania [Euro adoption in Romania]," MPRA Paper 18612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    13. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    14. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ivan Todorov, 2013. "The Monetary Integration of the New Member States before the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 375-390.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Jan Fidrmuc & Peter Huber, 2005. "AccessLab: Drawing Conclusions and Deriving Policy Implications," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25452.
    19. Styliani Christodoulopoulou, 2014. "The effect of currency unions on business cycle correlations: the EMU case," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 177-222, May.
    20. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An Empirical Test of Trade Gravity Model Criteria for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," MPRA Paper 7083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; exchange rate; trade integration; EMU; Croatia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:avo:emipdu:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:113-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nebojsa Stojcic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oedubhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.