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Coalition Feature Interpretation and Attribution in Algorithmic Trading Models

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  • James V. Hansen

    (Brigham Young University)

Abstract

The ability to correctly interpret a prediction model’s output is critically important in many problem spheres. Accurate interpretation generates user trust in the model, provides insight into how a model may be improved, and supports understanding of the process being modeled. Absence of this capability has constrained algorithmic trading from making use of more powerful predictive models, such as XGBoost and Random Forests. Recently, the adaptation of coalitional game theory has led to the development of consistent methods of determining feature importance for these models (SHAP).This study designs and tests a novel method of integrating the capabilities of SHAP into predictive models for algorithmic trading.

Suggested Citation

  • James V. Hansen, 2021. "Coalition Feature Interpretation and Attribution in Algorithmic Trading Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 849-866, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:58:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-020-10053-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-020-10053-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stan Lipovetsky & Michael Conklin, 2001. "Analysis of regression in game theory approach," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 319-330, October.
    2. Stephane Mussard & Virginie Terraza, 2008. "The Shapley decomposition for portfolio risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 713-715.
    3. Sebastian Bach & Alexander Binder & Grégoire Montavon & Frederick Klauschen & Klaus-Robert Müller & Wojciech Samek, 2015. "On Pixel-Wise Explanations for Non-Linear Classifier Decisions by Layer-Wise Relevance Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-46, July.
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