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Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data

Author

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  • Denis Fougère

    (CNRS and CREST-INSEE, 15 Bd Gabriel Péri, 92245 Malakoff Cedex, France; CEPR, London, UK; and IZA, Bonn, Germany)

  • Thierry Kamionka

    (CNRS and CREST-INSEE, 15 Bd Gabriel Péri, 92245 Malakoff Cedex, France)

Abstract

This paper presents Bayesian inference procedures for the continuous time mover-stayer model applied to labour market transition data collected in discrete time. These methods allow us to derive the probability of embeddability of the discrete-time modelling with the continuous-time one. A special emphasis is put on two alternative procedures, namely the importance sampling algorithm and a new Gibbs sampling algorithm. Transition intensities, proportions of stayers and functions of these parameters are then estimated with the Gibbs sampling algorithm for individual transition data coming from the French Labour Force Surveys collected over the period 1986-2000. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka, 2003. "Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 697-723.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:18:y:2003:i:6:p:697-723
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.727
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    Cited by:

    1. Moshe Buchinsky & Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Rusty Tchernis, 2002. "Interfirm Mobility, Wages and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S," Working Papers 2002-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Thierry Kamionka & Cyriaque Edon, 2007. "Modélisation dynamique de la participation au marché du travail des femmes en couple," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 86, pages 77-108.
    3. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    4. Piet, Laurent & Saint-Cyr, Legrand D.F., 2016. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025," Working Papers 250208, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    5. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F. & Piet, Laurent, 2014. "Movers and Stayers in the Farming Sector: Another Look at Heterogeneity in Structural Change," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183068, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William, 2008. "Cyclical movements in unemployment and informality in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4648, The World Bank.
    7. Thierry Kamionka & Xavier VU NGOC, 2015. "Trajectoire des jeunes sur le marché du travail, quartier d’origine et diplôme : une modélisation dynamique," Working Papers 2015-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    8. Michael K. Ng & Yuho Chung, 2012. "Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(8), pages 663-674, December.
    9. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Accounting for farm heterogeneity in the assessment of agricultural policy impacts on structural change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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