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Preparedness or repeated short-term relief aid?: building drought resilience through early warning in southern Africa

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  • Nhamo, Luxon
  • Mabhaudhi, T.
  • Modi, A. T.

Abstract

Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to drought because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of agriculture, hydroenergy and fisheries. Recurring droughts continue to impact rural livelihoods and degrade the environment. Drought severity in southern Africa is exacerbated by poor levels of preparedness and low adaptive capacity. Whilst weather extremes and hazards are inevitable, the preparedness to manage such hazards determines their impact and whether they become disasters. Southern Africa is often caught unprepared by drought as existing early warning systems lack the drought forecasting component, which often results in reactionary interventions as opposed to well-planned and proactive response mechanisms. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes of rainfall and aridity in southern Africa through an analysis of long-term precipitation and evaporation trends from 1960 to 2007. Stakeholder consultation was conducted in Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during the peak of the 2015/16 drought, focusing on overall drought impacts, current water resource availability, existing early warning systems, adaptation mechanisms and institutional capacity to mitigate and manage droughts as part of overall disaster risk reduction strategies. Average rainfall has decreased by 26% in the region between 1960 and 2007, and aridity has increased by 11% between 1980 and 2007. The absence of drought forecasting and lack of institutional capacity to mitigate drought impede regional drought risk reduction initiatives. Existing multi-hazard early warning systems in the region focus on flooding and drought monitoring and assessment. Drought forecasting is often not given due consideration, yet it is a key component of early warning and resilience building. We propose a regional drought early warning framework, emphasising the importance of both monitoring and forecasting as being integral to a drought early warning system and building resilience to drought.

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  • Nhamo, Luxon & Mabhaudhi, T. & Modi, A. T., 2019. "Preparedness or repeated short-term relief aid?: building drought resilience through early warning in southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 45(1):75-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:iwt:jounls:h049087
    DOI: 10.4314/wsa.v45i1.09
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    1. Nhamo, Luxon & Matchaya, Greenwell & Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles & Mpandeli, S., "undated". "Cereal production trends under climate change: impacts and adaptation strategies in Southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H049086, International Water Management Institute.
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    4. Janna Frischen & Isabel Meza & Daniel Rupp & Katharina Wietler & Michael Hagenlocher, 2020. "Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Luxon Nhamo & Greenwell Matchaya & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Sibusiso Nhlengethwa & Charles Nhemachena & Sylvester Mpandeli, 2019. "Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi & Lindumusa Myeni & Ludwig Christian Kaempffer & Derick Vermaak & Gert de Nysschen & Chrisna Henningse & Irene Nel & Dudley Rowswell, 2022. "Climate Dataset for South Africa by the Agricultural Research Council," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12, August.
    7. Gitonga, Zachary M. & Visser, Martine & Mulwa, Chalmers, 2020. "Can climate information salvage livelihoods in arid and semiarid lands? An evaluation of access, use and impact in Namibia," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    8. Dennis Junior Choruma & Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna & Nelson Oghenekaro Odume, 2022. "Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Hafsah Batool & Hamza Irshad Ch & Shahida Haji & Kashiba Sadaqat, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainable Development," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 2(4), pages 112-116, December.
    10. Sylvester Mpandeli & Luxon Nhamo & Sithabile Hlahla & Dhesigen Naidoo & Stanley Liphadzi & Albert Thembinkosi Modi & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2020. "Migration under Climate Change in Southern Africa: A Nexus Planning Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhamo, Luxon & Mpandeli, S. & Nhemachena, Charles & Senzanje, A. & Sobratee, N. & Chivenge, P. P. & Slotow, R. & Naidoo, D. & Liphadzi, S. & Modi, A. T., 2019. "The water–energy–food nexus as a tool to transform rural livelihoods and well-being in southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 16(16):1-20.
    12. Cornelius K. A. Pienaah & Evans Batung & Suleman Ansumah Saaka & Kamaldeen Mohammed & Isaac Luginaah, 2023. "Early Warnings and Perceived Climate Change Preparedness among Smallholder Farmers in the Upper West Region of Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Matchaya, Greenwell & Nhamo, Luxon & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles, 2019. "An overview of water markets in southern Africa: an option for water management in times of scarcity," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 11(5):1-16..
    14. Goldin, J. & Nhamo, L. & Ncube, B. & Zvimba, J. N. & Petja, B. & Mpandeli, S. & Nomquphu, W. & Hlophe-Ginindza, S. & Greeff-Laubscher, M. R. & Molose, V. & Lottering, S. & Liphadzi, S. & Naidoo, D. & , 2022. "Resilience and sustainability of the water sector during the COVID-19 pandemic," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-14(3):148.
    15. Luxon Nhamo & Sylvester Mpandeli & Stanley Liphadzi & Tinashe Lindel Dirwai & Hillary Mugiyo & Aidan Senzanje & Bruce A Lankford & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2024. "Why Do Farmers Not Irrigate All the Areas Equipped for Irrigation? Lessons from Southern Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Naidoo, Dhesigen & Nhamo, Luxon & Mpandeli, Sylvester & Sobratee, Nafisa & Senzanje, Aidan & Liphadzi, Stanley & Slotow, Rob & Jacobson, Michael & Modi, Albert T. & Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe, 2021. "Operationalising the water-energy-food nexus through the theory of change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Luxon Nhamo & Sylvester Mpandeli & Charles Nhemachena & Aidan Senzanje & Nafisa Sobratee & Pauline Paidamoyo Chivenge & Rob Slotow & Dhesigen Naidoo & Stanley Liphadzi & Albe, 2019. "The Water–Energy–Food Nexus as a Tool to Transform Rural Livelihoods and Well-Being in Southern Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Luxon Nhamo & James Magidi & Adolph Nyamugama & Alistair D. Clulow & Mbulisi Sibanda & Vimbayi G. P. Chimonyo & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2020. "Prospects of Improving Agricultural and Water Productivity through Unmanned Aerial Vehicles," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.

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