IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/ibsibr/v50y2021i2p275-301.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study on the Relationship between CDS Premiums and Stock Market Indices: A Case of the Fragile Five Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Nuri Avsarligil

    (Akdeniz University, The Faculty of Applied Sciences / The Department of Finance and Banking, Antalya, Turkey)

  • Emre Turgut

    (Akdeniz University, The Institute of Social Sciences, The Department of Finance and Banking, Antalya, Turkey)

Abstract

International investors should have a pioneering knowledge of the country’s risk level before investing their savings in a country. For this purpose, Credit Default Swap (CDS) Agreements that serve as insurance against investor’s risk of not collecting their receivables have been developed. These contract premiums are called CDS premiums. The relationship between the Fragile Five countries’ CDS premiums and the stock market index prices has been examined by various researchers. The present study is unique because it is one of the pioneering studies examining the relationship between the CDS premiums of the Fragile Five countries and their Stock Market Indices. First, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were performed for this purpose. Then, the Granger Causality test, Johansen Cointegration, and Pearson Correlation analyses were conducted to reveal the relationship between two variables. The results obtained in the study indicated that for India and Turkey, among the Fragile Five, there was a causality relationship between the stock market indices and the CDS premiums, a short-term relationship. In addition, there was a long-term cointegration relationship between the CDS premiums and the stock market indices of Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuri Avsarligil & Emre Turgut, 2021. "A Study on the Relationship between CDS Premiums and Stock Market Indices: A Case of the Fragile Five Countries," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 50(2), pages 275-301, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:ibsibr:v:50:y:2021:i:2:p:275-301
    DOI: 10.26650/ibr.2021.50.808240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/845B6ED4200946248AC40CB1DDF59E02
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/ibr/article/a-study-on-the-relationship-between-cds-premiums-and-stock-market-indices-a-case-of-the-fragile-five-countries
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/ibr.2021.50.808240?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yhlas Sovbetov & Hami Saka, 2018. "Does it take two to tango: Interaction between Credit Default Swaps and National Stock Indices," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 2(1), pages 129-149.
    2. Sinan Esen & Feyyaz Zeren & Halil Şimdi, 2015. "CDS and Stock Market: Panel Evidence Under Cross-Section Dependency," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 31-46.
    3. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    4. Asandului, Mircea & Lupu, Dan & Mursa, Gabriel Claudiu & Muşetescu, Radu, 2015. "Dynamic relations between CDS and stock markets in Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 95506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. José Da Fonseca & Katrin Gottschalk, 2020. "The Co‐Movement of Credit Default Swap Spreads, Equity Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 551-579, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "How do sovereign risk, equity and foreign exchange derivatives markets interact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 58-78.
    2. José Da Fonseca & Peiming Wang, 2016. "A joint analysis of market indexes in credit default swap, volatility and stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1767-1784, April.
    3. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Portfolio benefits of adding corporate credit default swap indices: evidence from North America and Europe," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 203-259, July.
    4. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1211-1227, September.
    5. Falik shear & Hilal Anwar Butt & Imtiaz Badshah, 2017. "An analysis of the relationship between the sovereign credit default swaps and the stock market of Pakistan through handling outliers," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4807486, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Zubair Ali Raja & William J. Procasky & Renee Oyotode-Adebile, 2020. "The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(3), pages 296-325, December.
    7. Ratner, Mitchell & Chiu, Chih-Chieh (Jason), 2013. "Hedging stock sector risk with credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 18-25.
    8. Santiago Forte & Lidija Lovreta, 2015. "Time†Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 430-461, June.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0243 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    11. Peter J. Zeitsch, 2017. "Capital Structure Arbitrage under a Risk-Neutral Calibration," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, January.
    12. Marsch, I. & Wagner, W.B., 2012. "Why is Price Discovery in Credit Default Swap Markets News-Specific?," Discussion Paper 2012-006, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2017. "Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-106.
    14. Houssam Bouzgarrou & Tarek Chebbi, 2016. "The reaction of sovereign CDS spread volatilities to news announcements," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 347-360, September.
    15. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott & Gunduz, Yalin & Merrick, John J., 2013. "Market transparency and the marking precision of bond mutual fund managers," CFR Working Papers 13-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-61.
    17. Breitenfellner, Bastian & Wagner, Niklas, 2012. "Explaining aggregate credit default swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 18-29.
    18. Andrew Castro & Neville Francis, 2018. "What Economic Factors Underlie Connectedness in Corporate Credit Default Swaps: News vs. Macroeconomic Factors?," 2018 Meeting Papers 586, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Imbierowicz, Björn & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2013. "Wealth transfer effects between stockholders and bondholders," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 23-43.
    20. Rahmi Erdem Aktug, 2015. "Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(1), pages 17-36, March.
    21. Davide Avino & Emese Lazar & Simone Varotto, 2011. "Which market drives credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods? An analysis of the contribution to price discovery of bonds, CDS, stocks and options," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-17, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:ibsibr:v:50:y:2021:i:2:p:275-301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.