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Why is Price Discovery in Credit Default Swap Markets News-Specific?

Author

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  • Ian W. Marsh

    (Cass Business School)

  • Wolf Wagner

    (Tilburg University, and Duisenberg school of finance)

Abstract

We analyse daily lead-lag patterns in US equity and credit default swap (CDS) returns. We first document that equity returns robustly lead CDS returns. However, we find that the CDS-lag is due to common (and not firm-specific) news and arises predominantly in response to positive (instead of negative) equity market news. We provide an explanation for this news-specific price discovery based on dealers in the CDS market exploiting their informational advantage vis-à-vis institutional investors with hedging demands. In support of this explanation we find that the CDS-lag and its news-specificity are related to various firm-level proxies for hedging demand in the cross-section as well measures for economy-wide informational asymmetries over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian W. Marsh & Wolf Wagner, 2012. "Why is Price Discovery in Credit Default Swap Markets News-Specific?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-033/IV/DSF33, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120033
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    2. Kim, Suk-Joong & Salem, Leith & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "The role of macroeconomic news in sovereign CDS markets: Domestic and spillover news effects from the U.S., the Eurozone and China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 208-224.
    3. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Do private signals of a bank s creditworthiness predict the bank s CDS price? : Evidence from the Eurosystem's overnight loan rates," Research Discussion Papers 9/2014, Bank of Finland.
    4. Marcin Wojtowicz, 2014. "The Determinants of CDS Bid-ask Spreads," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-138/IV/ DSF82, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2017. "Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-106.
    6. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Do private signals of a bank s creditworthiness predict the bank s CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem's overnight loan rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2014, Bank of Finland.
    7. Silaghi, Florina & Martín-Oliver, Alfredo & Sewaid, Ahmed, 2022. "The CDS market reaction to loan renegotiation announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Procasky, William J. & Yin, Anwen, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on the relative market efficiency and forecasting ability of credit derivative and equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Rainer Jobst & Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule & Martin Schmelzle, 2015. "A Simple Econometric Approach for Modeling Stress Event Intensities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 300-320, April.
    10. Procasky, William J., 2021. "Price discovery in CDS and equity markets: Default risk-based heterogeneity in the systematic investment grade and high yield sectors," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Gomes, Pedro & Kurter, Zeynep O. & Morita, Rubens, 2022. "European Sovereign Bond and Stock Market Granger Causality Dynamics," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1405, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    12. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    13. Vincent Xiang & Michael T. Chng & Victor Fang, 2017. "The economic significance of CDS price discovery," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-30, January.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lee, Jongsub & Naranjo, Andy & Velioglu, Guner, 2018. "When do CDS spreads lead? Rating events, private entities, and firm-specific information flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 556-578.
    16. Procasky, William J. & Yin, Anwen, 2023. "Identifying the true nature of price discovery and cross-market informational flow in the investment grade CDS and equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Pereira da Silva, Paulo & Vieira, Isabel & Vieira, Carlos, 2015. "M&A operations: Further evidence of informed trading in the CDS market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 116-130.
    18. William J. Procasky & Anwen Yin, 2022. "Forecasting high‐yield equity and CDS index returns: Does observed cross‐market informational flow have predictive power?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1466-1490, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price discovery; hedging demand; CDS markets; equity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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