IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v22y2012icp18-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining aggregate credit default swap spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Breitenfellner, Bastian
  • Wagner, Niklas

Abstract

We examine risk factors that explain daily changes in aggregate credit default swap (CDS) spreads before, during and after the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Based on the European iTraxx CDS index universe, we document time-variation in the significance of spread determinants. Before and after the crisis, spread changes are mainly determined by stock returns and implied stock market volatility. Global financial variables possess explanatory power during the pre-crisis and the crisis period. Liquidity proxy variables are significantly related to spread changes for financials, while unrelated for non-financials. Examination of the risk factors' explanatory power for large spread changes reveals weakened significance indicating that additional factors are necessary for their explanation. Finally, we examine the lead–lag relationship between spread changes and stock returns. Stock market returns lead spread changes during the crisis period, while a bidirectional relationship emerges after the crisis period. This suggests that aggregate spread changes are actually informative for equity market participants, possibly measuring systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Breitenfellner, Bastian & Wagner, Niklas, 2012. "Explaining aggregate credit default swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 18-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:22:y:2012:i:c:p:18-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2012.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521912000178
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2012.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scheicher, Martin, 2008. "How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches," Working Paper Series 910, European Central Bank.
    2. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    5. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    6. Giammarino, Flavia & Barrieu, Pauline, 2009. "A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-670, September.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    8. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    9. Byström, Hans N. E., 2005. "Credit Default Swaps and Equity Prices: The Itraxx CDS Index Market," Working Papers 2005:24, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 15 May 2005.
    10. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    11. Christoph Benkert, 2004. "Explaining credit default swap premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 71-92, January.
    12. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul, 2009. "Hedging credit: Equity liquidity matters," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, January.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    14. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chao, Shih-kang & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hien, Pham-thu, 2014. "Credit risk calibration based on CDS spreads," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-026, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    4. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Khaldoun Maddallah Al-Qaisi & Rafat Mohd Soudki Al-Batayneh, 2017. "Credit Default Swap and Liquidity," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 697-700.
    6. Sorwar, Ghulam & Pappas, Vasileios & Pereira, John & Nurullah, Mohamed, 2016. "To debt or not to debt: Are Islamic banks less risky than conventional banks?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 113-126.
    7. Österholm, Pär, 2018. "The relation between treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads in Australia: Evidence from VARs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 186-192.
    8. Heger, Julia & Min, Aleksey & Zagst, Rudi, 2024. "Analyzing credit spread changes using explainable artificial intelligence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    10. Alena Audzeyeva & Xu Wang, 2023. "Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    11. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    12. Hertrich, Markus, 2015. "Does Credit Risk Impact Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swap Markets," MPRA Paper 67837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    14. Kizys, Renatas & Paltalidis, Nikos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2016. "The quest for banking stability in the euro area: The role of government interventions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 111-133.
    15. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    16. Dodd, Olga & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Chan, Wing, 2021. "Evaluating corporate credit risks in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Pereira, John & Sorwar, Ghulam & Nurullah, Mohamed, 2018. "What drives corporate CDS spreads? A comparison across US, UK and EU firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 188-200.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    2. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    3. Specht, Leon, 2023. "An Empirical Analysis of European Credit Default Swap Spread Dynamics," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(1), pages 1-42.
    4. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2012. "Idiosyncratic volatility vs. liquidity? Evidence from the US corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 217-242.
    5. Lamia Bekkour & Thorsten Lehnert & Maria Chiara Amadori, 2011. "The Relative Informational Efficiency of Stocks, Options and Credit Default Swaps," LSF Research Working Paper Series 11-13, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    6. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    7. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    8. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    9. Marra, Miriam, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on senior credit index spreads during the subprime crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 148-167.
    10. Hertrich, Markus, 2015. "Does Credit Risk Impact Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swap Markets," MPRA Paper 67837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Biao Guo & David Newton, 2013. "Regime-Dependent Liquidity Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Spread Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 279-298, June.
    12. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    13. Alena Audzeyeva & Xu Wang, 2023. "Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    14. Mascia Bedendo & Lara Cathcart & Lina El†Jahel, 2011. "Market and Model Credit Default Swap Spreads: Mind the Gap!," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 655-678, September.
    15. Iftekhar Hasan & Liuling Liu & Gaiyan Zhang, 2016. "The Determinants of Global Bank Credit-Default-Swap Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 275-309, December.
    16. Ann Marie Hibbert & Ivelina Pavlova & Joel Barber & Krishnan Dandapani, 2011. "Credit Spread Changes and Equity Volatility: Evidence from Daily Data," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 357-383, August.
    17. Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Gabrysch, Janet & Gabrysch, Sandra, 2018. "Liquidity tail risk and credit default swap spreads," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 1137-1153.
    18. Ka Kei Chan & Ming‐Tsung Lin & Qinye Lu, 2024. "Corporate credit default swap systematic factors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1224-1256, July.
    19. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta & Pilbeam, Keith, 2018. "The housing market and the credit default swap premium in the UK banking sector: A VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
    20. Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5(1), pages 49-72.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:22:y:2012:i:c:p:18-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.