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Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Siebert

    (Faculty of Law, Business and Economics, University of Bayreuth, D-95440 Bayreuth, Germany)

  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

Abstract

The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and the effectiveness of different stimuli for improving this ability. For decisions for which the full set of potentially desirable alternatives is not readily apparent, our first study indicates that decision makers identify less than half of their alternatives and that the average quality of the overlooked alternatives is the same as those identified. Four other studies provide insight about how to use objectives to stimulate the alternative-creation process of decision makers and confirm with high significance that such use enhances both the number and quality of created alternatives. Using results of the studies, practical guidelines to create alternatives for important decisions are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Siebert & Ralph L. Keeney, 2015. "Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1144-1158, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:63:y:2015:i:5:p:1144-1158
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2015.1411
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph L. Keeney, 2012. "Value-Focused Brainstorming," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 303-313, December.
    2. Samuel D. Bond & Kurt A. Carlson & Ralph L. Keeney, 2010. "Improving the Generation of Decision Objectives," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 238-255, September.
    3. Gettys, Charles F. & Pliske, Rebecca M. & Manning, Carol & Casey, Jeff T., 1987. "An evaluation of human act generation performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 23-51, February.
    4. Ronald A. Howard, 1988. "Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 679-695, June.
    5. Butler, Adam B. & Scherer, Lisa L., 1997. "The Effects of Elicitation Aids, Knowledge, and Problem Content on Option Quantity and Quality," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 184-202, November.
    6. Samuel D. Bond & Kurt A. Carlson & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 56-70, January.
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    Cited by:

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    5. Timothy McDaniels, 2021. "Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 491-502, March.
    6. Carlos Arturo Hoyos-Vallejo, 2021. "Decision-making and Effectiveness of Business Results in Times of COVID-19," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12.
    7. Franco, L. Alberto & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A. & Leppänen, Ilkka, 2021. "Taking stock of behavioural OR: A review of behavioural studies with an intervention focus," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 401-418.
    8. Johannes Ulrich Siebert & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 97-114, June.
    9. Sven Peters & Mendy Tönsfeuerborn & Rüdiger von Nitzsch, 2024. "Integrating Uncertainties in a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with the Entscheidungsnavi," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    10. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Miebs, Grzegorz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2022. "Recommending multiple criteria decision analysis methods with a new taxonomy-based decision support system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 633-651.
    11. Florian Methling & Steffen A. Borden & Deepak Veeraraghavan & Insa Sommer & Johannes Ulrich Siebert & Rüdiger von Nitzsch & Mark Seidler, 2022. "Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 337-353, December.
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