IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/oprepe/v3y2016icp14-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Path dependence in Operational Research—How the modeling process can influence the results

Author

Listed:
  • Hämäläinen, Raimo P.
  • Lahtinen, Tuomas J.

Abstract

In Operational Research practice there are almost always alternative paths that can be followed in the modeling and problem solving process. Path dependence refers to the impact of the path on the outcome of the process. The steps of the path include, e.g. forming the problem solving team, the framing and structuring of the problem, the choice of model, the order in which the different parts of the model are specified and solved, and the way in which data or preferences are collected. We identify and discuss seven possibly interacting origins or drivers of path dependence: systemic origins, learning, procedure, behavior, motivation, uncertainty, and external environment. We provide several ideas on how to cope with path dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Lahtinen, Tuomas J., 2016. "Path dependence in Operational Research—How the modeling process can influence the results," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 14-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:oprepe:v:3:y:2016:i:c:p:14-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.orp.2016.03.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214716015300117
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.orp.2016.03.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Gregory W., 1995. "Range Sensitivity of Attribute Weights in Multiattribute Value Models," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 252-266, June.
    2. Vijay Mehrotra & Thomas A. Grossman, 2009. "OR Process Skills Transform an Out-of-Control Call Center into a Strategic Asset," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 346-352, August.
    3. Kahneman, Daniel & Ritov, Ilana & Schkade, David A, 1999. "Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 203-235, December.
    4. R J Ormerod, 2008. "The transformation competence perspective," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(11), pages 1435-1448, November.
    5. Mort Webster, 2008. "Incorporating Path Dependency into Decision-Analytic Methods: An Application to Global Climate-Change Policy," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 60-75, June.
    6. Franco, L. Alberto & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2010. "Facilitated modelling in operational research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 489-500, September.
    7. Lane, David C., 1992. "Modelling as learning: A consultancy methodology for enhancing learning in management teams," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-84, May.
    8. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    9. Scarf, Philip A., 1997. "On the application of mathematical models in maintenance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 493-506, June.
    10. von Winterfeldt, Detlof & Fasolo, Barbara, 2009. "Structuring decision problems: A case study and reflections for practitioners," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 857-866, December.
    11. Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Luoma, Jukka & Saarinen, Esa, 2013. "On the importance of behavioral operational research: The case of understanding and communicating about dynamic systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(3), pages 623-634.
    12. Franco, L. Alberto & Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A. & Korzilius, Hubert, 2016. "Different paths to consensus? The impact of need for closure on model-supported group conflict management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 878-889.
    13. Pierson, Paul, 2000. "Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(2), pages 251-267, June.
    14. Poyhonen, Mari & Vrolijk, Hans & Hamalainen, Raimo P., 2001. "Behavioral and procedural consequences of structural variation in value trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 216-227, October.
    15. Kristensen, Henrik & Garling, Tommy, 1997. "The Effects of Anchor Points and Reference Points on Negotiation Process and Outcome," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 85-94, July.
    16. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    17. Furnham, Adrian & Boo, Hua Chu, 2011. "A literature review of the anchoring effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-42, February.
    18. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    19. Adam Borison, 2005. "Real Options Analysis: Where Are the Emperor's Clothes?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 17(2), pages 17-31, March.
    20. Gartland, Myles P., 2005. "Interdisciplinary views of sub-optimal outcomes: Path dependence in the social and management sciences," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 686-702, October.
    21. Martin Weber & Franz Eisenführ & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1988. "The Effects of Splitting Attributes on Weights in Multiattribute Utility Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 431-445, April.
    22. John D. C. Little, 1970. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(8), pages 466-485, April.
    23. van Exel, N.J.A. & Brouwer, W.B.F. & van den Berg, B. & Koopmanschap, M.A., 2006. "With a little help from an anchor: Discussion and evidence of anchoring effects in contingent valuation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 836-853, October.
    24. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
    25. Johannes Siebert & Ralph L. Keeney, 2015. "Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1144-1158, October.
    26. J B Jun & S H Jacobson & J R Swisher, 1999. "Application of discrete-event simulation in health care clinics: A survey," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(2), pages 109-123, February.
    27. Payne, John W & Bettman, James R & Schkade, David A, 1999. "Measuring Constructed Preferences: Towards a Building Code," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 243-270, December.
    28. Stefan A. Hajkowicz, 2012. "For the Greater Good? A Test for Strategic Bias in Group Environmental Decisions," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 331-344, May.
    29. Cynthia Barnhart & Peter Belobaba & Amedeo R. Odoni, 2003. "Applications of Operations Research in the Air Transport Industry," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 368-391, November.
    30. Michael Pidd, 1999. "Just Modeling Through: A Rough Guide to Modeling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 118-132, April.
    31. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-337, May.
    32. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2006. "Path dependence and regional economic evolution," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 395-437, August.
    33. Schwenk, Charles & Thomas, Howard, 1983. "Formulating the mess: The role of decision aids in problem formulation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 239-252.
    34. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 88(2), pages 312-319.
    35. Franco, L. Alberto & Lord, Ewan, 2011. "Understanding multi-methodology: Evaluating the perceived impact of mixing methods for group budgetary decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 362-372, June.
    36. William T. Morris, 1967. "On the Art of Modeling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(12), pages 707-717, August.
    37. Raimo Hämäläinen & Eero Kettunen & Mika Marttunen & Harri Ehtamo, 2001. "Evaluating a Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision Support in Water Resources Management," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 331-353, July.
    38. Larry J. LeBlanc & Thomas A. Grossman, 2008. "Introduction: The Use of Spreadsheet Software in the Application of Management Science and Operations Research," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 225-227, August.
    39. Leslie A. Lenert & Daniel J. Cher & Mary K. Goldstein & Merlynn R. Bergen & Alan Garber, 1998. "The Effect of Search Procedures on Utility Elicitations," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 18(1), pages 76-83, January.
    40. Kelly Levin & Benjamin Cashore & Steven Bernstein & Graeme Auld, 2012. "Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 45(2), pages 123-152, June.
    41. Landry, Maurice & Malouin, Jean-Louis & Oral, Muhittin, 1983. "Model validation in operations research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 207-220, November.
    42. Leon, Orfelio G., 1999. "Value-Focused Thinking versus Alternative-Focused Thinking: Effects on Generation of Objectives," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 213-227, December.
    43. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    44. John D. Sterman & Jason Wittenberg, 1999. "Path Dependence, Competition, and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 322-341, June.
    45. Walker, Warren E., 2009. "Does the best practice of rational-style model-based policy analysis already include ethical considerations?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1062, December.
    46. Samuel D. Bond & Kurt A. Carlson & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 56-70, January.
    47. Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
    48. Aki Lehtinen, 2015. "Strategic Voting and the Degree of Path-Dependence," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 97-114, January.
    49. Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Alaja, Susanna, 2008. "The threat of weighting biases in environmental decision analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 556-569, December.
    50. Sterman, John., 1994. "Learning in and about complex systems," Working papers 3660-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Potoniec, Jedrzej & Sroka, Daniel & Pawlak, Tomasz P., 2022. "Continuous discovery of Causal nets for non-stationary business processes using the Online Miner," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1304-1320.
    2. Linnéusson, Gary & Ng, Amos H.C. & Aslam, Tehseen, 2020. "A hybrid simulation-based optimization framework supporting strategic maintenance development to improve production performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 402-414.
    3. Sondoss Elsawah & Elena Bakhanova & Raimo P. Hämäläinen & Alexey Voinov, 2023. "A Competency Framework for Participatory Modeling," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 569-601, June.
    4. Phillips, Christina Jane & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2019. "Forecast quality improvement with Action Research: A success story at PharmaCo," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 129-143.
    5. Zare, Fateme & Jakeman, Anthony J. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Guillaume, Joseph H.A., 2024. "Bridging practice and science in socio-environmental systems research and modelling: A design science approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    6. Elena Bakhanova & Jaime A. Garcia & William L. Raffe & Alexey Voinov, 2023. "Gamification Framework for Participatory Modeling: A Proposal," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1167-1182, October.
    7. Wu, Yongjiao & Dong, Suocheng & Huang, Haosheng & Zhai, Jun & Li, Yu & Huang, Dingxuan, 2018. "Quantifying urban land expansion dynamics through improved land management institution model: Application in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 386-396.
    8. Hukkinen, Janne I. & Eronen, Jussi T. & Janasik, Nina & Järvensivu, Paavo & Kaaronen, Roope O., 2022. "Coping with policy errors in an era of chronic socio-environmental crises," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    9. Lahtinen, Tuomas J. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Jenytin, Cosmo, 2020. "On preference elicitation processes which mitigate the accumulation of biases in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 201-210.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lahtinen, Tuomas J. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P., 2016. "Path dependence and biases in the even swaps decision analysis method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 890-898.
    2. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
    3. Franco, L. Alberto & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A. & Leppänen, Ilkka, 2021. "Taking stock of behavioural OR: A review of behavioural studies with an intervention focus," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 401-418.
    4. Marttunen, Mika & Haag, Fridolin & Belton, Valerie & Mustajoki, Jyri & Lienert, Judit, 2019. "Methods to inform the development of concise objectives hierarchies in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 604-620.
    5. Luoma, Jukka, 2016. "Model-based organizational decision making: A behavioral lens," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 816-826.
    6. A Morton & B Fasolo, 2009. "Behavioural decision theory for multi-criteria decision analysis: a guided tour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 268-275, February.
    7. Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Alaja, Susanna, 2008. "The threat of weighting biases in environmental decision analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 556-569, December.
    8. Marttunen, Mika & Belton, Valerie & Lienert, Judit, 2018. "Are objectives hierarchy related biases observed in practice? A meta-analysis of environmental and energy applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(1), pages 178-194.
    9. Harper, Alison & Mustafee, Navonil & Yearworth, Mike, 2021. "Facets of trust in simulation studies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 197-213.
    10. Lami, Isabella M. & Tavella, Elena, 2019. "On the usefulness of soft OR models in decision making: A comparison of Problem Structuring Methods supported and self-organized workshops," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 1020-1036.
    11. Richard M. Anderson & Robert Clemen, 2013. "Toward an Improved Methodology to Construct and Reconcile Decision Analytic Preference Judgments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 121-134, June.
    12. Pamela Jeziorska-Biel & Katarzyna Leśniewska-Napierała & Konrad Czapiewski, 2021. "(Circular) Path Dependence—The Role of Vineyards in Land Use, Society and Regional Development—The Case of Lubuskie Region (Poland)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Ron Martin, 2010. "Roepke Lecture in Economic Geography—Rethinking Regional Path Dependence: Beyond Lock-in to Evolution," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 86(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Lane, David C. & Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A., 2023. "Towards a behavioural system dynamics: Exploring its scope and delineating its promise," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 777-794.
    15. Kirsi Kotilainen & Pami Aalto & Jussi Valta & Antti Rautiainen & Matti Kojo & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2019. "From path dependence to policy mixes for Nordic electric mobility: Lessons for accelerating future transport transitions," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 52(4), pages 573-600, December.
    16. Strambach Simone & Halkier Henrik, 2013. "Editorial. Reconceptualizing change: Path dependency, path plasticity and knowledge combination," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 57(1-2), pages 1-14, October.
    17. Lahtinen, Tuomas J. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Jenytin, Cosmo, 2020. "On preference elicitation processes which mitigate the accumulation of biases in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 201-210.
    18. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2010. "The Place of Path Dependence in an Evolutionary Perspective on the Economic Landscape," Chapters, in: Ron Boschma & Ron Martin (ed.), The Handbook of Evolutionary Economic Geography, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Franco, L. Alberto & Lord, Ewan, 2011. "Understanding multi-methodology: Evaluating the perceived impact of mixing methods for group budgetary decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 362-372, June.
    20. Leonhard Dobusch & Elke Schüßler, 2013. "Theorizing path dependence: a review of positive feedback mechanisms in technology markets, regional clusters, and organizations," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(3), pages 617-647, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:oprepe:v:3:y:2016:i:c:p:14-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/operations-research-perspectives .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.