IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i11p1746-d1408221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating Uncertainties in a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with the Entscheidungsnavi

Author

Listed:
  • Sven Peters

    (Decision Theory and Financial Services Group, RWTH Aachen University, Templergraben 64, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Mendy Tönsfeuerborn

    (Decision Theory and Financial Services Group, RWTH Aachen University, Templergraben 64, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Rüdiger von Nitzsch

    (Decision Theory and Financial Services Group, RWTH Aachen University, Templergraben 64, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

Abstract

The Entscheidungsnavi is an open-source decision support system based on multi-attribute utility theory, that offers various methods for dealing with uncertainties. To model decisions with uncertainties, decision-makers can use two categories: Forecast and Parameter Uncertainties. Forecast Uncertainty is modeled with (combined) influence factors using discrete, user-defined probability distributions or predefined ‘worst-median-best’ distributions. Parameter Uncertainty allows imprecision for utilities, objective weights, and probability distributions. To analyze these uncertainties, the Entscheidungsnavi offers several methods and tools, like a robustness check, based on (Monte Carlo) simulations and a sensitivity analysis. The objective weight analysis provides insights into the effects of different objective weight combinations. Indicator impacts, tornado diagrams, and risk profiles visualize the impact of uncertainties in a decision under risk. Risk profiles also enable a check for stochastic and simulation dominance. This article presents the complete range of methods for dealing with uncertainties in the Entscheidungsnavi using a hypothetical case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Peters & Mendy Tönsfeuerborn & Rüdiger von Nitzsch, 2024. "Integrating Uncertainties in a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with the Entscheidungsnavi," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:1746-:d:1408221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/11/1746/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/11/1746/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiménez, Antonio & Mateos, Alfonso & Sabio, Pilar, 2013. "Dominance intensity measure within fuzzy weight oriented MAUT: An application," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 397-405.
    2. Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Nunes da Silva, Fernando & Vansnick, Jean-Claude, 2001. "Conflict dissolution in the public sector: A case-study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 388-401, April.
    3. Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Chagas, Manuel P., 2004. "A career choice problem: An example of how to use MACBETH to build a quantitative value model based on qualitative value judgments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 323-331, March.
    4. Pereira, Miguel Alves & Machete, Inês Freire & Ferreira, Diogo Cunha & Marques, Rui Cunha, 2020. "Using multi-criteria decision analysis to rank European health systems: The Beveridgian financing case," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March.
    6. James S. Dyer & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1979. "Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 810-822, August.
    7. Ralph L. Keeney, 1972. "Utility Functions for Multiattributed Consequences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(5-Part-1), pages 276-287, January.
    8. Adiel Teixeira Almeida & Eduarda Asfora Frej & Lucia Reis Peixoto Roselli, 2021. "Combining holistic and decomposition paradigms in preference modeling with the flexibility of FITradeoff," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(1), pages 7-47, March.
    9. Peter C. Fishburn, 1965. "Analysis of Decisions with Incomplete Knowledge of Probabilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 13(2), pages 217-237, April.
    10. Johannes Siebert & Ralph L. Keeney, 2015. "Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1144-1158, October.
    11. Samuel D. Bond & Kurt A. Carlson & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 56-70, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos A. Bana e Costa & João C. Lourenço & Manuel P. Chagas & João C. Bana e Costa, 2008. "Development of Reusable Bid Evaluation Models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 22-42, March.
    2. Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Lourenço, João C. & Chagas, Manuel P. & Bana e Costa, João C., 2007. "Development of reusable bid evaluation models for the Portugese Electric Transmission Company," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 22697, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Siebert, Johannes Ulrich & Kunz, Reinhard E. & Rolf, Philipp, 2021. "Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 264-282.
    4. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
    5. Anderson, Jock R. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1972. "An Appreciation of Decision Analysis in Management," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(04), pages 1-15, December.
    6. He, Ying & Huang, Rui-Hua, 2008. "Risk attributes theory: Decision making under risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 243-260, April.
    7. Rodrigues, Teresa C. & Montibeller, Gilberto & Oliveira, Mónica D. & Bana e Costa, Carlos A., 2017. "Modelling multicriteria value interactions with Reasoning Maps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1054-1071.
    8. K S Park & I Jeong, 2011. "How to treat strict preference information in multicriteria decision analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(10), pages 1771-1783, October.
    9. Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Lahtinen, Tuomas J., 2016. "Path dependence in Operational Research—How the modeling process can influence the results," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 14-20.
    10. Ahn, Byeong Seok & Park, Haechurl, 2014. "Establishing dominance between strategies with interval judgments of state probabilities," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 53-59.
    11. Manuel D. N. T. Oliveira & Fernando A. F. Ferreira & Guillermo O. Pérez-Bustamante Ilander & Marjan S. Jalali, 2017. "Integrating cognitive mapping and MCDA for bankruptcy prediction in small- and medium-sized enterprises," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(9), pages 985-997, September.
    12. Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Carnero, María Carmen & Oliveira, Mónica Duarte, 2012. "A multi-criteria model for auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 381-393.
    13. Scholten, Lisa & Schuwirth, Nele & Reichert, Peter & Lienert, Judit, 2015. "Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 243-260.
    14. Florian Methling & Steffen A. Borden & Deepak Veeraraghavan & Insa Sommer & Johannes Ulrich Siebert & Rüdiger von Nitzsch & Mark Seidler, 2022. "Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 337-353, December.
    15. F. Hutton Barron & Charles P. Schmidt, 1988. "Entropy‐based selection with multiple objectives," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 643-654, December.
    16. Nilsen Kundakcı, 2016. "Combined Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach Based on MACBETH and MULTI-MOORA Methods," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 4(1), pages 17-26, April.
    17. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Yoon-Jae Wang, 2002. "Consistent testing for stochastic dominance: a subsampling approach," CeMMAP working papers 03/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Han, Chang Hee & Kim, Jae Kyeong & Choi, Sang Hyun, 2004. "Prioritizing engineering characteristics in quality function deployment with incomplete information: A linear partial ordering approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 235-249, October.
    19. Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2015. "On the decomposition of Generalized Additive Independence models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15064, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    20. Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Oliveira, Carlos S. & Vieira, Victor, 2008. "Prioritization of bridges and tunnels in earthquake risk mitigation using multicriteria decision analysis: Application to Lisbon," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 442-450, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:1746-:d:1408221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.