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Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis

Author

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  • Arnold Barnett

    (Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

Abstract

Under present arrangements, U.S. commercial planes do not travel “as the crow flies” from origin to destination; rather, they are generally restricted to paths within a grid. New technologies, however, raise the possibility of moving to a “free-flight” regime under which planes could fly directly from point to point. Striving for general insight rather than definitive conclusions, we use geometrical probability to assess how free-flight could affect the safety and efficiency of en route air traffic operations. We work with two air traffic control sectors: one hypothetical and the other based on actual traffic patterns over Albany, New York. Though tentative, the results suggest that---so long as certain operational constraints are retained---the changed geometry of flight paths after a transition to free-flight might tend in itself to diminish mid-air collision risk. Much depends, however, on whether the human/technological capabilities of future air traffic control can match the extraordinary effectiveness of the existing system.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Barnett, 2000. "Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 833-845, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:48:y:2000:i:6:p:833-845
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.48.6.833.12394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William J. Dunlay, 1975. "Analytical Models of Perceived Air Traffic Control Conflicts," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 149-164, May.
    2. Robert E. Machol, 1995. "Thirty Years of Modeling Midair Collisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 151-172, October.
    3. Robert E. Machol, 1975. "An Aircraft Collision Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(10), pages 1089-1101, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Netjasov, Fedja & Janic, Milan, 2008. "A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 213-220.
    2. Prot, D. & Rapine, C. & Constans, S. & Fondacci, R., 2010. "Using graph concepts to assess the feasibility of a sequenced air traffic flow with low conflict rate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 184-196, November.
    3. Ibsen, Alexander Z., 2009. "The politics of airplane production: The emergence of two technological frames in the competition between Boeing and Airbus," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 342-349.
    4. Prot, D. & Rapine, C. & Constans, S. & Fondacci, R., 2014. "A 4D-sequencing approach for air traffic management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 411-425.
    5. Thomas R. Willemain, 2003. "Factors Influencing Blind Conflict Risk in En Route Sectors Under Free-Flight Conditions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 457-470, November.

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