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Analytical Models of Perceived Air Traffic Control Conflicts

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  • William J. Dunlay

    (The University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

This paper describes two analytical models for estimating the expected number of perceived enroute air traffic control conflicts: one for crossing conflicts and one for overtake conflicts. The crossing conflicts model is derived in terms of the probability that controllers perceive various aircraft separations as potential violations of the 5-nmi minimum separation rule. The expected number of perceived overtake conflicts is shown to depend only on the relative speeds of in-trail aircraft. In both cases the expected number of conflicts is found to vary as the square of the aircraft flow rate. The epochs at which aircraft pass a point on an airway are assumed to define a stochastic point process. Both models for the expected number of conflicts are shown to depend only on the assumption that the point process is stationary. It is argued that the distribution of the number of conflicts of either type in a given time interval is approximately Poisson.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Dunlay, 1975. "Analytical Models of Perceived Air Traffic Control Conflicts," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 149-164, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:9:y:1975:i:2:p:149-164
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.9.2.149
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedman, Moshe F., 1986. "On the properties of the sum of durations of perceived conflicts in air traffic control," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 317-324.
    2. Arnold Barnett, 2000. "Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 833-845, December.

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