IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ortrsc/v37y2003i4p457-470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Factors Influencing Blind Conflict Risk in En Route Sectors Under Free-Flight Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas R. Willemain

    (Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180-3590)

Abstract

We develop a simulation model of the flight of aircraft through an en route sector. The model is used in two experiments. The first studies the effect of directional clumping on risk. The second is a full factorial design with replication, which simulates a large number of scenarios to assess the impact of key input factors on free-flight risk measures. We measure risk for a given flight by the mean distance of closest approach to other aircraft and the mean number of approaches closer than a specified distance. Using analysis of variance and regression analysis, we determine that the most important influences on blind collision risk are time of entry into the sector and number of aircraft. Also influential are certain orientations of flight paths and the distribution of airspeeds. The least important factor is altitude. The relationship between number of aircraft and the two risk measures can be quantified in regression relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Willemain, 2003. "Factors Influencing Blind Conflict Risk in En Route Sectors Under Free-Flight Conditions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 457-470, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:37:y:2003:i:4:p:457-470
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.37.4.457.23273
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.37.4.457.23273
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/trsc.37.4.457.23273?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Datta, K. & Oliver, R. M., 1991. "Predicting risk of near midair collisions in controlled airspace," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 237-252, August.
    2. Hanif D. Sherali & J. Cole Smith & Antonio A. Trani & Srinivas Sale, 2000. "National Airspace Sector Occupancy and Conflict Analysis Models for Evaluating Scenarios under the Free-Flight Paradigm," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 321-336, November.
    3. Hockaday, Stephen L. M. & Chatziioanou, Alypios, 1986. "An analytical method for aircraft collision risk estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 415-428, October.
    4. Arnold Barnett, 1999. "A "Parallel Approach" Path to Estimating Collision Risk During Simultaneous Landings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 382-394, March.
    5. Arnold Barnett, 2000. "Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 833-845, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prot, D. & Rapine, C. & Constans, S. & Fondacci, R., 2014. "A 4D-sequencing approach for air traffic management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 411-425.
    2. Ghoneim, Ayman & Abbass, Hussein A., 2016. "A multiobjective distance separation methodology to determine sector-level minimum separation for safe air traffic scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 226-240.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanif D. Sherali & J. Cole Smith & Antonio A. Trani, 2002. "An Airspace Planning Model for Selecting Flight-plans Under Workload, Safety, and Equity Considerations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 378-397, November.
    2. Hanif D. Sherali & Raymond W. Staats & Antonio A. Trani, 2003. "An Airspace Planning and Collaborative Decision-Making Model: Part I—Probabilistic Conflicts, Workload, and Equity Considerations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 434-456, November.
    3. Netjasov, Fedja & Janic, Milan, 2008. "A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 213-220.
    4. Hanif Sherali & Justin Hill, 2013. "Configuration of airspace sectors for balancing air traffic controller workload," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 3-31, March.
    5. Anders la Cour‐Harbo & Henrik Schiøler, 2019. "Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2499-2513, November.
    6. Prot, D. & Rapine, C. & Constans, S. & Fondacci, R., 2010. "Using graph concepts to assess the feasibility of a sequenced air traffic flow with low conflict rate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 184-196, November.
    7. Ibsen, Alexander Z., 2009. "The politics of airplane production: The emergence of two technological frames in the competition between Boeing and Airbus," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 342-349.
    8. Prot, D. & Rapine, C. & Constans, S. & Fondacci, R., 2014. "A 4D-sequencing approach for air traffic management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 411-425.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:37:y:2003:i:4:p:457-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.