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U.S. Aviation Regulations Increase Probability of Midair Collisions

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  • Robert W. Patlovany

Abstract

A purely stochastic Monte Carlo model is used to compare the relative midair collision course probabilities and mean closing velocities of four systems of rules for aircraft cruising altitudes as a function of altitude error: (1) current U.S. federal rules, (2) random altitudes, and (3) two proposed alternatives to the current rules. This model increments error while: (1) counting collisions among cruising pairs of aircraft following the four rules being tested on random headings between randomly placed airports, and (2) calculating mean closing velocities for each rule. The calculations verify that: (1) federal rules increase collision course probabilities by about four times more than for a chaotic system of aircraft cruising at randomly selected altitudes, (2) risk is directly proportional to the level of compliance, and (3) mean closing velocities resulting from the current rule are slightly less than for random altitudes, while being almost twice as high as for the proposed rules. High closing velocities are shown to increase the collision probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Patlovany, 1997. "U.S. Aviation Regulations Increase Probability of Midair Collisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 237-248, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:237-248
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00862.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Machol, 1975. "An Aircraft Collision Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(10), pages 1089-1101, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wendl, Michael C., 2003. "Collision probability between sets of random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 249-254, September.
    2. Anders la Cour‐Harbo & Henrik Schiøler, 2019. "Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2499-2513, November.

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