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Do Stock Analysts Influence Merger Completion? An Examination of Postmerger Announcement Recommendations

Author

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  • David A. Becher

    (Department of Finance, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104; and Wharton Financial Institutions Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Jonathan B. Cohn

    (Finance Department, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)

  • Jennifer L. Juergens

    (Department of Finance, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of analyst recommendations issued after a merger announcement on deal completion. We find the probability of completion increases (decreases) with the favorability of acquirer (target) recommendations. Results from instrumental variables tests support causality running from recommendations to merger outcomes. Additional tests suggest that these relations are driven by target shareholders reassessing the merger offer in response to movements in acquirer and target valuations. We also find that favorably recommended firms in a proposed merger underperform following deal resolution, suggesting that investors overreact to postmerger announcement recommendations. This paper was accepted by Wei Jiang, finance .

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Becher & Jonathan B. Cohn & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2015. "Do Stock Analysts Influence Merger Completion? An Examination of Postmerger Announcement Recommendations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2430-2448, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:61:y:2015:i:10:p:2430-2448
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.2065
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    3. Tuan Ho & Ruby Brownen‐Trinh & Fangming Xu, 2021. "The information content of target price forecasts: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5-6), pages 1134-1171, May.
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    6. Ecer, C. Fuat J. & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2020. "Done Deal! Advisor impact on Pricing, Premia, Returns, and Deal Completion in M&A," Other publications TiSEM 3cbae916-147a-4039-b753-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Zhang, Ping & Wang, Yiru, 2023. "The bright side of analyst coverage on corporate innovation: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Sailesh Tanna & Ibrahim Yousef & Matthias Nnadi, 2020. "Probability of mergers and acquisitions deal failure," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 1-30, May.
    9. Minzhi Wu & Mark Wilson & Yi Wu, 2017. "Was the Global Settlement Effective in Mitigating Systematic Bias in Affiliated Analyst Recommendations?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 485-503, December.
    10. Gerritsen, Dirk F. & Weitzel, Utz, 2017. "Security analyst target prices as reference point and takeover completion," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Hou, Jianlei & Zhao, Shangmei & Yang, Haijun, 2018. "Security analysts’ earnings forecasting performance based on information transmission network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 611-619.
    12. Lien, Wan-Chien & Chen, Tianxu & Chen, Jianhong & Sohl, Jeffrey E., 2021. "How do financial analysts’ recommendations affect firm competitive actions? A rival-centric view," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 531-539.
    13. Wafa Tariq Waqar, 2020. "Board size and acquisition outcome: The moderating role of home country formal institutional development," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 529-541, June.
    14. Davidson Heath & Mark Mitchell, 2023. "Market Returns and Interim Risk in Mergers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 617-635, January.
    15. Yen-Jung Tseng & Mark Wilson, 2020. "Changes in Recommendation Rating Systems, Analyst Optimism, and Investor Response," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 369-401, October.
    16. Chen, Wenchuan & Liu, Yu & Liu, Siyi & Chen, Yugang & Zhang, Pengdong, 2024. "The governance effects of social media engagement on M&A outcomes: Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Andrei Filip & Gerald J. Lobo & Luc Paugam & Hervé Stolowy, 2022. "Disclosures About Key Value Drivers in M&A Announcement Press Releases: An Exploratory Study," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(1), pages 62-104, March.
    18. Braun, Declan & Han, Yue & Wang, Heng Emily, 2023. "The application of feed forward neural networks to merger arbitrage: A return-based analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    19. Deepak Kumar & Keya Sengupta & Mousumi Bhattacharya, 2023. "M&A Negotiations: Role of Negotiation Process, Ownership and Advisors on Deal Completion," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1083-1115, October.
    20. Felipe Cortes & Francisco Marcet, 2023. "Analysts’ Connections and M&A Outcomes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4108-4133, July.
    21. Shi, Wei & King, David R. & Connelly, Brian L., 2021. "Closing the deal: Managerial response to short sellers following M&A announcement," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 188-199.

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