IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v509y2018icp611-619.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Security analysts’ earnings forecasting performance based on information transmission network

Author

Listed:
  • Hou, Jianlei
  • Zhao, Shangmei
  • Yang, Haijun

Abstract

Security analysts’ research reports are important information resources in financial markets. To investigate the relationship between information connection among analysts and earnings forecasting performance, we construct an information transmission network based on all research reports issued on stocks of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2016. Visual network figure presents the change of analysts’ network position during the sample period. Moreover, information connection stability is defined to assess network stability, which is negatively correlated with stock market volatility. Empirical results show that analysts with a more central position in the network will get better earnings forecasting performance with less forecasting volatility and higher forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hou, Jianlei & Zhao, Shangmei & Yang, Haijun, 2018. "Security analysts’ earnings forecasting performance based on information transmission network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 611-619.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:611-619
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118308185
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.093?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Derrien & Ambrus Kecskés, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Exogenous Changes in Analyst Coverage," Post-Print hal-00852356, HAL.
    2. Bakker, L. & Hare, W. & Khosravi, H. & Ramadanovic, B., 2010. "A social network model of investment behaviour in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1223-1229.
    3. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    4. Crucitti, Paolo & Latora, Vito & Marchiori, Massimo & Rapisarda, Andrea, 2004. "Error and attack tolerance of complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 340(1), pages 388-394.
    5. Tsekeris, Theodore, 2017. "Global value chains: Building blocks and network dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 488(C), pages 187-204.
    6. Qi Chen & Wei Jiang, 2006. "Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 319-355.
    7. David A. Becher & Jonathan B. Cohn & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2015. "Do Stock Analysts Influence Merger Completion? An Examination of Postmerger Announcement Recommendations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2430-2448, October.
    8. Xia, Lisi & You, Daming & Jiang, Xin & Guo, Quantong, 2018. "Comparison between global financial crisis and local stock disaster on top of Chinese stock network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 222-230.
    9. Hu, Fei & Zhao, Shangmei & Bing, Tao & Chang, Yiming, 2017. "Hierarchy in industrial structure: The cases of China and the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 871-882.
    10. Yael V. Hochberg & Alexander Ljungqvist & Yang Lu, 2007. "Whom You Know Matters: Venture Capital Networks and Investment Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 251-301, February.
    11. Zeileis, Achim, 2004. "Econometric Computing with HC and HAC Covariance Matrix Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 11(i10).
    12. Yael V. Hochberg & Alexander Ljungqvist & Yang Lu, 2010. "Networking as a Barrier to Entry and the Competitive Supply of Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 829-859, June.
    13. Feng, Xunan & Hu, Na & Johansson, Anders C., 2016. "Ownership, analyst coverage, and stock synchronicity in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 79-96.
    14. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, February.
    15. Brennan, Michael J & Hughes, Patricia J, 1991. "Stock Prices and the Supply of Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1665-1691, December.
    16. Hochberg, Yael V. & Lindsey, Laura A. & Westerfield, Mark M., 2015. "Resource accumulation through economic ties: Evidence from venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 245-267.
    17. Sitabhra Sinha, 2010. "Are large complex economic systems unstable ?," Papers 1009.0972, arXiv.org.
    18. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    19. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    20. Heiberger, Raphael H., 2014. "Stock network stability in times of crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 376-381.
    21. Heiberger, Raphael H., 2018. "Predicting economic growth with stock networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 102-111.
    22. Zhao, Zheng & Zhang, YongJie & Feng, Xu & Zhang, Wei, 2014. "An analysis of herding behavior in security analysts’ networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 116-124.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1933-1968 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July.
    25. Boone, Audra L. & White, Joshua T., 2015. "The effect of institutional ownership on firm transparency and information production," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 508-533.
    26. François Derrien & Ambrus Kecskés, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Exogenous Changes in Analyst Coverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1407-1440, August.
    27. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    2. Hou, Jianlei & Zhao, Shangmei & Yang, Haijun, 2020. "Individual analysts, stock return synchronicity and information efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Hansen, Robert S., 2015. "What is the value of sell-side analysts? Evidence from coverage changes – A discussion," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 58-64.
    4. Lawrence D. Brown & Andrew C. Call & Michael B. Clement & Nathan Y. Sharp, 2015. "Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-47, March.
    5. William Baker & Gregory Dumont, 2014. "Equity Analyst Recommendations: A Case for Affirmative Disclosure?," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 96-123, March.
    6. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    7. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    8. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017, January-A.
    9. Hassan Tehranian & Mengxing Zhao & Julie L. Zhu, 2014. "Can Analysts Analyze Mergers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 959-979, April.
    10. Lubomir P. Litov & Patrick Moreton & Todd R. Zenger, 2012. "Corporate Strategy, Analyst Coverage, and the Uniqueness Paradox," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1797-1815, October.
    11. Dang, Chongyu & Foerster, Stephen & Li, Zhichuan (Frank) & Tang, Zhenyang, 2021. "Analyst talent, information, and insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Akyol, Ali C. & Qian, Yiming & Yu, Frank, 2023. "How do experienced analysts improve price efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dan Palmon & Bharat Sarath & Hua C. Xin, 2020. "Bold Stock Recommendations: Informative or Worthless?†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 773-801, June.
    15. Tuan Ho & Ruby Brownen‐Trinh & Fangming Xu, 2021. "The information content of target price forecasts: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5-6), pages 1134-1171, May.
    16. Mola, Simona & Guidolin, Massimo, 2009. "Affiliated mutual funds and analyst optimism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 108-137, July.
    17. Phillip J. McKnight & Steven K. Todd, 2006. "Analyst Forecasts and the Cross Section of European Stock Returns," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(5), pages 201-224, December.
    18. David A. Becher & Jonathan B. Cohn & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2015. "Do Stock Analysts Influence Merger Completion? An Examination of Postmerger Announcement Recommendations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2430-2448, October.
    19. Ioannis Ioannou & George Serafeim, 2015. "The impact of corporate social responsibility on investment recommendations: Analysts' perceptions and shifting institutional logics," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 1053-1081, July.
    20. Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Vasios, Michalis, 2014. "Sell-side analysts’ career concerns during banking stresses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 424-441.
    21. Petya Platikanova, 2023. "The Real Effects of Analyst Research Quality: Evidence from the Adoption of the Broker Protocol," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 33(3), pages 237-261, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:611-619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.