IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v67y2012i3p933-971.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers

Author

Listed:
  • ALEX EDMANS
  • ITAY GOLDSTEIN
  • WEI JIANG

Abstract

Using mutual fund redemptions as an instrument for price changes, we identify a strong effect of market prices on takeover activity (the “trigger effect”). An interquartile decrease in valuation leads to a seven percentage point increase in acquisition likelihood, relative to a 6% unconditional takeover probability. Instrumentation addresses the fact that prices are endogenous and increase in anticipation of a takeover (the “anticipation effect”). Our results overturn prior literature that finds a weak relation between prices and takeovers without instrumentation. These findings imply that financial markets have real effects: They impose discipline on managers by triggering takeover threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 933-971, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:67:y:2012:i:3:p:933-971
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01738.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01738.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01738.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    2. Song, Moon H. & Walkling, Ralph A., 2000. "Abnormal returns to rivals of acquisition targets: A test of the 'acquisition probability hypothesis'," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 143-171, February.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    4. Dirk Hackbarth & Erwan Morellec, 2008. "Stock Returns in Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    5. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1997. "Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1087-1129, July.
    6. Agrawal, Anup & Jaffe, Jeffrey F., 2003. "Do Takeover Targets Underperform? Evidence from Operating and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 721-746, December.
    7. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June.
    8. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    9. Giroud, Xavier & Mueller, Holger M., 2010. "Does corporate governance matter in competitive industries?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 312-331, March.
    10. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    11. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 110-110.
    12. Lucian Bebchuk & Alma Cohen & Allen Ferrell, 2009. "What Matters in Corporate Governance?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 783-827, February.
    13. Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event-Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm55, Yale School of Management.
    14. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "The Going‐Public Decision and the Development of Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1045-1082, June.
    15. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Siegel, Donald, 1990. "The effects of leveraged buyouts on productivity and related aspects of firm behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 165-194, September.
    16. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 351-351.
    17. Edmans, Alex, 2011. "Short-term termination without deterring long-term investment: A theory of debt and buyouts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 81-101, October.
    18. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    19. Alex Edmans, 2009. "Blockholder Trading, Market Efficiency, and Managerial Myopia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2481-2513, December.
    20. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    21. Alex Edmans & Gustavo Manso, 2011. "Governance Through Trading and Intervention: A Theory of Multiple Blockholders," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2395-2428.
    22. Paul Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Corporate Governance and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 107-156.
    23. Smith, Abbie J., 1990. "Corporate ownership structure and performance *1: The case of management buyouts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-164, September.
    24. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    25. Baker, Malcolm & Pan, Xin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2012. "The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 49-71.
    26. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1993. "Market Liquidity and Performance Monitoring," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 678-709, August.
    27. Bates, Thomas W. & Becher, David A. & Lemmon, Michael L., 2008. "Board classification and managerial entrenchment: Evidence from the market for corporate control," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 656-677, March.
    28. Hunt-McCool, Janet & Koh, Samuel C & Francis, Bill B, 1996. "Testing for Deliberate Underpricing in the IPO Premarket: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1251-1269.
    29. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
    30. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh, 2006. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 725-762, April.
    31. Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks, 2006. "Changes in Institutional Ownership and Stock Returns: Assessment and Methodology," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2869-2910, November.
    32. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2010. "Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 45-86, February.
    33. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2007. "Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 619-650.
    34. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    35. Prabhala, N R, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38.
    36. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    37. Baker, George P. & Wruck, Karen H., 1989. "Organizational changes and value creation in leveraged buyouts : The case of the O.M. Scott & Sons Company," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 163-190, December.
    38. Anat R. Admati & Paul Pfleiderer, 2009. "The "Wall Street Walk" and Shareholder Activism: Exit as a Form of Voice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2445-2485, July.
    39. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. "The Stock Market Investments: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Scholarly Articles 30747157, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    40. Powell, James L., 1984. "Least absolute deviations estimation for the censored regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 303-325, July.
    41. Michael J. Fishman & Kathleen M. Hagerty, 1992. "Insider Trading and the Efficiency of Stock Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(1), pages 106-122, Spring.
    42. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
    43. Kaplan, Steven, 1989. "The effects of management buyouts on operating performance and value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 217-254.
    44. Agrawal, Anup & Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon N, 1992. "The Post-merger Performance of Acquiring Firms: A Re-examination of an Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1605-1621, September.
    45. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2010. "Market-Based Corrective Actions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 781-820, February.
    46. Ambrose, Brent W. & Megginson, William L., 1992. "The Role of Asset Structure, Ownership Structure, and Takeover Defenses in Determining Acquisition Likelihood," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 575-589, December.
    47. Palepu, Krishna G., 1986. "Predicting takeover targets : A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-35, March.
    48. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    49. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
    50. Itay Goldstein & Alexander Guembel, 2008. "Manipulation and the Allocational Role of Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(1), pages 133-164.
    51. Mikkelson, Wayne H. & Partch, M. Megan, 1989. "Managers' voting rights and corporate control," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 263-290, December.
    52. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    53. Muscarella, Chris J & Vetsuypens, Michael R, 1990. "Efficiency and Organizational Structure: A Study of Reverse LBOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1389-1413, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steven Chong Xiao, 2020. "Do Noisy Stock Prices Impede Real Efficiency?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5990-6014, December.
    2. Edmans, Alex & Holderness, Clifford, 2016. "Blockholders: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cheung, William Ming Yan & Im, Hyun Joong & Selvam, Srinivasan, 2023. "Stock liquidity and investment efficiency: Evidence from the split-share structure reform in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    5. Gao, Ning, 2015. "The motives of cash reserve and bidder cash reserve effects," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 73-88.
    6. Alex Edmans & Gustavo Manso, 2011. "Governance Through Trading and Intervention: A Theory of Multiple Blockholders," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2395-2428.
    7. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    8. Basnet, Anup & Davis, Frederick & Walker, Thomas & Zhao, Kun, 2021. "The effect of securities class action lawsuits on mergers and acquisitions," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Tunyi, Abongeh A. & Ntim, Collins G. & Danbolt, Jo, 2019. "Decoupling management inefficiency: Myopia, hyperopia and takeover likelihood," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Bai, Jennie & Philippon, Thomas & Savov, Alexi, 2016. "Have financial markets become more informative?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 625-654.
    11. Guernsey, Scott & Sepe, Simone M. & Serfling, Matthew, 2022. "Blood in the water: The value of antitakeover provisions during market shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1070-1096.
    12. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    13. Itay Goldstein, 2023. "Information in Financial Markets and Its Real Effects," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32.
    14. Chang, Eric C. & Lin, Tse-Chun & Ma, Xiaorong, 2020. "Governance through trading on acquisitions of public firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Tunyi, Abongeh A., 2021. "Revisiting acquirer returns: Evidence from unanticipated deals," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Ee, Mong Shan & Hasan, Iftekhar & Huang, He, 2022. "Stock liquidity and corporate labor investment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Brogaard, Jonathan & Li, Dan & Xia, Ying, 2017. "Stock liquidity and default risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 486-502.
    20. Pereira da Silva, Paulo, 2021. "Do managers pay attention to the market? A review of the relationship between stock price informativeness and investment," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:67:y:2012:i:3:p:933-971. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.