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Long-Run Abstinence After Narcotics Abuse: What Are the Odds?

Author

Listed:
  • Marnik G. Dekimpe

    (Catholic University Lauven, Naamestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium)

  • Linda M. Van de Gucht

    (Catholic University Lauven, Naamestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium)

  • Dominique M. Hanssens

    (The Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481)

  • Keiko I. Powers

    (The Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481)

Abstract

We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.

Suggested Citation

  • Marnik G. Dekimpe & Linda M. Van de Gucht & Dominique M. Hanssens & Keiko I. Powers, 1998. "Long-Run Abstinence After Narcotics Abuse: What Are the Odds?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-1), pages 1478-1492, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:44:y:1998:i:11-part-1:p:1478-1492
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.44.11.1478
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    References listed on IDEAS

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