IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v37y1991i6p627-644.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the Long-Term Effects of Public Policy: The Case of Narcotics Use and Property Crime

Author

Listed:
  • Keiko Powers

    (Neuropsychiatric Institute, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90024)

  • Dominique M. Hanssens

    (Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024)

  • Yih-Ing Hser

    (Neuropsychiatric Institute, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90024)

  • M. Douglas Anglin

    (Neuropsychiatric Institute, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90024)

Abstract

The effects of treatment and legal supervision on narcotics use and criminal activities were assessed by applying newly developed time-series methods that disentangle the long-term (permanent) and the short-term (temporary) effects of intervention. A multivariate systems approach was used to characterize the dynamic interplay of several related behaviors at a group level over a long period of time. Five variables---abstinence from narcotics use, daily narcotics use (or addiction), property crime, methadone maintenance treatment, and legal supervision---were derived by aggregating information from over 600 narcotic addiction histories averaging 12 years in length. Because of the long assessment period, age was also included as a control variable. Overall, the system dynamics among the variables were characterized by long-term rather than short-term relationships. Neither methadone maintenance nor legal supervision had short-term effects on narcotics use or property crime. Methadone maintenance treatment demonstrated long-term benefits by reducing narcotics use and criminal activities. Legal supervision, on the other hand, did not reduce either narcotics use or property crime in the long run. Instead, there was a positive long-term relationship in which a higher level of legal supervision was related to higher levels of narcotics use and criminal activity. This latter finding is consistent with the observation that either narcotics use or criminal activity is likely to bring addicts to the attention of the legal system. However, these addicts, as a group, did not directly respond to legal supervision by changing their narcotics use or crime involvement except perhaps through coerced treatment. The paper explores the policy implications of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiko Powers & Dominique M. Hanssens & Yih-Ing Hser & M. Douglas Anglin, 1991. "Measuring the Long-Term Effects of Public Policy: The Case of Narcotics Use and Property Crime," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(6), pages 627-644, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:37:y:1991:i:6:p:627-644
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.37.6.627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.37.6.627
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.37.6.627?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yih-Ing Hser & Haikang Shen & Chih-Ping Chou & Stephen C. Messer & M. Douglas Anglin, 2001. "Analytic Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Treatment Effects," Evaluation Review, , vol. 25(2), pages 233-262, April.
    2. Steenkamp, J-B.E.M. & Nijs, V.R. & Hanssens, D.M. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "Competitive Reactions and the Cross-Sales Effects of Advertising and Promotion," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-20-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    3. Koen Pauwels & Shuba Srinivasan, 2004. "Who Benefits from Store Brand Entry?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 364-390, July.
    4. M.G. Dekimpe & D.M. Hanssens, 2005. "Persistence Models and Marketing Strategy," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(5), pages 855-884.
    5. Dekimpe, M.G. & Hanssens, D.M., 2003. "Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-088-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J-B.E.M. & Leeflang, P.S.H., 2007. "The Role of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation Across All Continents," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-095-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Keiko Ichikawa Powers & M. Douglas Anglin, 1993. "Cumulative Versus Stabilizing Effects of Methadone Maintenance," Evaluation Review, , vol. 17(3), pages 243-270, June.
    8. Li, Xi & Dahana, Wirawan Dony & Ye, Qiongwei & Peng, Luluo & Zhou, Jiaying, 2021. "How does shopping duration evolve and influence buying behavior? The role of marketing and shopping environment," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Srinivasan, S. & Pauwels, K.H. & Hanssens, D.M. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers or Both?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-21-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    10. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Linda M. Van de Gucht & Dominique M. Hanssens & Keiko I. Powers, 1998. "Long-Run Abstinence After Narcotics Abuse: What Are the Odds?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-1), pages 1478-1492, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:37:y:1991:i:6:p:627-644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.