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Reasoning About Competitive Reactions: Evidence from Executives

Author

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  • David B. Montgomery

    (Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford, California 94305-5015, and Singapore Management University, 469 Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259756)

  • Marian Chapman Moore

    (Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia, 100 Darden Boulevard, Charlottesville, Virginia 22906)

  • Joel E. Urbany

    (Mendoza College of Business, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556)

Abstract

Much of the empirical research on competitive reactions describes how or why rivals react to a firm's past actions, but stops short of examining whether managers attempt to such reactions, which we call strategic competitive reasoning. In three exploratory studies, we find evidence of managers' thinking about competitors' past and future behavior, but little incidence of strategic competitive reasoning. Competitive intelligence experts and other experienced managers' assessment of the results suggests that the relatively low incidence of strategic competitor reasoning is due to perceptions of low returns from anticipating competitor reactions more than to the high cost of doing so. Both the difficulty of obtaining competitive information and the uncertainty associated with predicting competitor behavior contribute to these perceptions. The paper suggests both a need for research on competitive behavior and an opportunity to influence and improve managerial judgment and decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • David B. Montgomery & Marian Chapman Moore & Joel E. Urbany, 2005. "Reasoning About Competitive Reactions: Evidence from Executives," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 138-149, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:24:y:2005:i:1:p:138-149
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1040.0076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gijsenberg, Maarten & Nijs, Vincent R., 2018. "Advertising Timing," Research Report 2018004-MARK, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    2. Lim, Lewis K.S., 2013. "Mapping competitive prediction capability: Construct conceptualization and performance payoffs," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(9), pages 1576-1586.
    3. Jan-Benedict E. M. Steenkamp & Vincent R. Nijs & Dominique M. Hanssens & Marnik G. Dekimpe, 2005. "Competitive Reactions to Advertising and Promotion Attacks," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 35-54, September.
    4. Oliver Schaer & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Robert Fildes, 2022. "Predictive competitive intelligence with prerelease online search traffic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(10), pages 3823-3839, October.
    5. Shah, Purvi, 2020. "Managing customer reactions to brand deletion in B2B and B2C contexts," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Kusum L. Ailawadi & Praveen K. Kopalle & Scott A. Neslin, 2005. "Predicting Competitive Response to a Major Policy Change: Combining Game-Theoretic and Empirical Analyses," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 12-24, September.
    7. Robert Meyer & Joachim Vosgerau & Vishal Singh & Joel Urbany & Gal Zauberman & Michael Norton & Tony Cui & Brian Ratchford & Alessandro Acquisti & David Bell & Barbara Kahn, 2010. "Behavioral research and empirical modeling of marketing channels: Implications for both fields and a call for future research," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 301-315, September.
    8. Rodrigo Menon Simões Moita & Daniel Silv, 2014. "Follow The Leader: Competition In The Auto Financing Sector," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 136, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Matt Theeke & Hun Lee, 2017. "Multimarket Contact and Rivalry over Knowledge‐based Resources," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 2508-2531, December.
    10. Zohor Kettani & Lionel Garreau & Amine Belemlih, 2024. "Exploring competitive intelligence through the lens of managerial openness: a literature review and future research agenda," Post-Print hal-04654057, HAL.
    11. Holtrop, Niels & Wieringa, Jakob & Gijsenberg, Maarten & Stern, P., 2016. "Competitive reactions to personal selling," Research Report 16004-MARK, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    12. Li, Yan & Chen, Yefen & Shou, Biying & Zhao, Xiaobo, 2019. "Oligopolistic quantity competition with bounded rationality and social comparison," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 180-196.
    13. Lim, Leon Gim & Tuli, Kapil R. & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2018. "Investors' evaluations of price-increase preannouncements," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 359-377.
    14. Delre, Sebastiano A. & Panico, Claudio & Wierenga, Berend, 2017. "Competitive strategies in the motion picture industry: An ABM to study investment decisions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-99.
    15. Frank M. Bass & Norris Bruce & Sumit Majumdar & B. P. S. Murthi, 2007. "Wearout Effects of Different Advertising Themes: A Dynamic Bayesian Model of the Advertising-Sales Relationship," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 179-195, 03-04.
    16. Neil A. Morgan & Kimberly A. Whitler & Hui Feng & Simos Chari, 2019. "Research in marketing strategy," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 4-29, January.
    17. Gijsenberg, Maarten J. & Nijs, Vincent R., 2019. "Advertising spending patterns and competitor impact," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 232-250.
    18. Nathan Williams & P. K. Kannan & Shapour Azarm, 2011. "Retail Channel Structure Impact on Strategic Engineering Product Design," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 897-914, May.
    19. Aghaie, Sina & Javadinia, Amir & Mirahmad, Hooman & Janani, Saeed, 2022. "How incumbents’ response strategy impacts rivals’ market exit timing?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 251-263.
    20. Sungwook Yoon & Sukjae Jeong, 2017. "Investment Strategy in a Closed Loop Supply Chain: The Case of a Market with Competition between Two Retailers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-32, September.
    21. Wierenga, Berend, 2011. "Managerial decision making in marketing: The next research frontier," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 89-101.
    22. Paul Hughes & Ian R. Hodgkinson & Darwina Arshad & Mathew Hughes & Vitor Leone, 2018. "Planning to improvise? The role of reasoning in the strategy process: Evidence from Malaysia," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 449-470, June.

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