IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v5y2008i4p230-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Decision Tree Model for Evaluating Countermeasures to Secure Cargo at United States Southwestern Ports of Entry

Author

Listed:
  • Niyazi Onur Bakır

    (The National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089)

Abstract

This paper presents a decision tree model for evaluating countermeasures to reduce vulnerabilities to terrorism in commercial truck crossings at United States southwestern land ports of entry. The model includes critical events in four phases of cargo movement: cargo transfer in Mexico, Mexican customs, U.S. customs, and the inland phase. Improvements in transportation security, inspections at Mexican ports, and at U.S. ports, are comparatively evaluated using parameterized variables. Costs and benefits of such improvements are analyzed to counter a radiological dispersion device (also known as a “dirty bomb”) attack. The results suggest that security decisions depend primarily on the probability of attack and parameters that influence the overall cost of false alarms. Extensive exploratory analysis reveals that improving security at Mexican ports is not recommended, mainly due to the cost of false alarms. However, a high percentage and a high cost of false alarms may justify new radiation portal monitors at U.S. ports even when improvements in the capability to detect dangerous cargo are insignificant. Better transportation security is not recommended if the probability of attack is less than 0.15. When the probability of attack exceeds 0.15 and false-alarm related costs are high, the model recommends enhancing transportation security. In addition, the parameters modeling economic consequences of an attack in a populated area, the probability of discovering weapons after smuggling into the United States, the probability of detonation, as well as the probability of detection at U.S. ports of entry, have significant impact on the countermeasure decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Niyazi Onur Bakır, 2008. "A Decision Tree Model for Evaluating Countermeasures to Secure Cargo at United States Southwestern Ports of Entry," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 230-248, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:230-248
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1080.0124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1080.0124
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1080.0124?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Rosoff & D. Von Winterfeldt, 2007. "A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 533-546, June.
    2. Detlof von Winterfeldt & Terrence M. O'Sullivan, 2006. "Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 63-75, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2011. "From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 83-87, June.
    2. Mohammad E. Nikoofal & Jun Zhuang, 2012. "Robust Allocation of a Defensive Budget Considering an Attacker's Private Information," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 930-943, May.
    3. Dogucan Mazicioglu & Jason R. W. Merrick, 2018. "Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 962-977, May.
    4. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    5. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.
    6. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    7. Jason Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell, 2011. "A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1488-1510, September.
    8. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2016. "In the Opponent's Shoes: Increasing the Behavioral Validity of Attackers’ Judgments in Counterterrorism Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 666-680, April.
    9. Niyazi Bakır, 2011. "A Stackelberg game model for resource allocation in cargo container security," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 5-22, July.
    10. Robin L. Dillon & Vicki M. Bier & Richard Sheffield John & Abdullah Althenayyan, 2023. "Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 109-132, June.
    11. Xiaojun (Gene) Shan & Jun Zhuang, 2014. "Modeling Credible Retaliation Threats in Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons Using Partial Inspection---A Three-Stage Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 43-62, March.
    12. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    13. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
    14. David J. Caswell & Ronald A. Howard & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2011. "Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 30-45, March.
    15. Abdildin, Yerkin G. & Abbas, Ali E., 2016. "Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1306-1321.
    16. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2009. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 53-56, June.
    17. Naraphorn Haphuriwat & Vicki M. Bier & Henry H. Willis, 2011. "Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 88-102, June.
    18. Michael R. Greenberg & Karen Lowrie & Henry Mayer & Tayfur Altiok, 2011. "Risk‐Based Decision Support Tools: Protecting Rail‐Centered Transit Corridors from Cascading Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1849-1858, December.
    19. L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    20. Jason R. W. Merrick & Philip Leclerc, 2016. "Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 681-693, April.
    21. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, June.
    22. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    23. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    24. Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.
    2. Barry Charles Ezell & Steven P. Bennett & Detlof Von Winterfeldt & John Sokolowski & Andrew J. Collins, 2010. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 575-589, April.
    3. Christoph Werner & Tim Bedford & John Quigley, 2018. "Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2683-2702, December.
    4. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr, 2008. "Some Limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence” for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1749-1761, December.
    5. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    6. Zheng Tang & Yijia Li & Xiaofeng Hu & Huanggang Wu, 2019. "Risk Analysis of Urban Dirty Bomb Attacking Based on Bayesian Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    8. Kinnon, Michael Mac & Razeghi, Ghazal & Samuelsen, Scott, 2021. "The role of fuel cells in port microgrids to support sustainable goods movement," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. K Hausken & G Levitin, 2010. "Defence of homogeneous parallel multi-state systems subject to two sequential attacks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(3), pages 171-183, September.
    10. Insua, Insua Rios & Rios, Jesus & Banks, David, 2009. "Adversarial Risk Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(486), pages 841-854.
    11. Henry H. Willis & Tom LaTourrette, 2008. "Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 325-339, April.
    12. HOSSAIN, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Amrani, Safae El & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy & Rinaudo, Christina & Hamilton, Michael, 2020. "Modeling and assessing interdependencies between critical infrastructures using Bayesian network: A case study of inland waterway port and surrounding supply chain network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Gerstenfeld, Arthur & Berger, Paul D., 2011. "A decision-analysis approach for optimal airport security," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 14-21.
    14. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, June.
    15. Jason Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell, 2011. "A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1488-1510, September.
    16. Wang, Jia & Ni, Shunjiang & Shen, Shifei & Li, Shuying, 2019. "Empirical study of crowd dynamic in public gathering places during a terrorist attack event," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Ralph L. Keeney, 2007. "Modeling Values for Anti‐Terrorism Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 585-596, June.
    18. Samrat Chatterjee & Daniel E. Salazar & Isaac Maya, 2014. "A Systems Approach for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architectures in Urban Areas," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 157-165, June.
    19. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2013. "Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 893-908, May.
    20. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:230-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.