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A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents

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  • Tianjun Feng

    (The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3125)

  • L. Robin Keller

    (The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3125)

Abstract

This paper presents a multiple-objective decision analysis approach to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate different potassium iodide (KI) distribution plans for a hypothetical local region. We developed this approach for a U.S. National Research Council committee that was charged with figuring out the best means for protecting people against potential thyroid cancer resulting from the release of radioactive iodine from nuclear incidents occurring due to terrorism or accidents. We first identify an objectives hierarchy and then develop the single-attribute value functions and the weights for the objectives using a swing weight method. The identification of the largest value gaps between the status quo and the ideal situation helps to develop potential KI distribution plans. We then use an additive value function to assess the performance of these new alternatives, with the status quo as a benchmark, by computing their overall values. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the KI problem shows how this approach can create more key insights for the improvement of health and safety decision-making processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianjun Feng & L. Robin Keller, 2006. "A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 76-93, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:3:y:2006:i:2:p:76-93
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1060.0072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Jamison Barnett & Margot Garcia, 2005. "A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis of Stakeholder Values to Identify Watershed Improvement Needs," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 44-57, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jay Simon & Eva Regnier & Laura Whitney, 2014. "A Value-Focused Approach to Energy Transformation in the United States Department of Defense," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 117-132, June.
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    3. Dogucan Mazicioglu & Jason R. W. Merrick, 2018. "Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 962-977, May.
    4. Ben Ewing & Erin Baker, 2009. "Development of a Green Building Decision Support Tool: A Collaborative Process," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 172-185, September.
    5. Stephen P. Chambal & Jeffery D. Weir & Yucel R. Kahraman & Alex J. Gutman, 2011. "A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 303-321, December.
    6. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    7. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.
    8. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    9. Robin L. Dillon & Vicki M. Bier & Richard Sheffield John & Abdullah Althenayyan, 2023. "Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 109-132, June.
    10. L. Robin Keller, 2010. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 235-237, September.
    11. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    12. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
    13. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 57-59, June.
    14. David J. Caswell & Ronald A. Howard & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2011. "Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 30-45, March.
    15. L. Robin Keller, 2007. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 47-48, June.
    16. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2012. "Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 186-203, June.
    17. L. Robin Keller & Craig W. Kirkwood & Nancy S. Jones, 2010. "Assessing stakeholder evaluation concerns: An application to the Central Arizona water resources system," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 58-71, March.
    18. Ed Cook & Jason R. W. Merrick, 2023. "Technology Implementation at Capital One," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 178-191, May.
    19. L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    20. Ashish K. Rathore & Arpan K. Kar & P. Vigneswara Ilavarasan, 2017. "Social Media Analytics: Literature Review and Directions for Future Research," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(4), pages 229-249, December.
    21. Jason R. W. Merrick & Philip Leclerc, 2016. "Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 681-693, April.
    22. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, June.
    23. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    24. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    25. Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.

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