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La Credibilidad y la Política Macroeconómica tras el abandono de la Convertibilidad

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo Aldo Visintini

    (Departamento de Economía y Finanzas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (Argentina))

  • Julio Rosales

    (Departamento de Economía y Finanzas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (Argentina))

Abstract

El presente trabajo describe y analiza la política macroeconómica, adoptada desde el abandono de la Convertibilidad en el año 2002 por el Gobierno de E. Duhalde a partir de considerar el concepto de la credibilidad. Del análisis realizado se concluye que: 1) los anuncios y las medidas de política macroeconómica tomadas para hacer frente a la crisis se implementaron en un contexto de total pérdida de la credibilidad de las autoridades tras el abandono de la Convertibilidad, 2) la respuesta del gobierno ante tal pérdida de credibilidad fue el llevar a extremos el ajuste fiscal y monetario a fin de contener la volatilidad cambiaria y revertir las expectativas de una hiperinflación con un costo enorme en términos de caída del producto, aumento del desempleo y la pobreza y 3) la reversión de las expectativas de los agentes económicos, que se manifestó en la contención de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, evidencia que el fuerte ajuste fiscal y monetario tuvo un peso mucho mayor que los factores reputacionales en la formación de las expectativas. / This paper describes and analyzes the macroeconomic policy, in particular the monetary and exchange policy, adopted since the abandonment of the Convertibility in 2002 by the Government of E. Duhalde from considering the concept of credibility. The analysis concluded that: 1) the announcements and macroeconomic policy measures taken to deal with the crisis were implemented in a context of total loss of credibility of the authorities after the abandonment of the Convertibility, 2) the response of the In the face of such a loss of credibility, the government took fiscal and monetary adjustments to extremes in order to contain the exchange volatility and reverse the expectations of hyperinflation with a huge cost in terms of falling output, increased unemployment and poverty, and 3) the reversion of the expectations of the economic agents, which manifested itself in the containment of the volatility of the exchange rate, shows that the strong fiscal and monetary adjustment had a much greater weight than the reputational factors in the formation of the expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Aldo Visintini & Julio Rosales, 2019. "La Credibilidad y la Política Macroeconómica tras el abandono de la Convertibilidad," Revista Actualidad Económica, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 29(97), pages 9-22, Ene-Abr.
    • Handle: RePEc:ief:revaec:v:29:y:2019:i:97:p:9-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baxter, Marianne, 1985. "The role of expectations in stabilization policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 343-362, May.
    2. Juan Carlos de Pablo, 2012. "Política económica y toma de decisiones, 2012-2015," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 496, Universidad del CEMA.
    3. Alex Cukierman, 1986. "Central bank behavior and credibility: some recent theoretical developments," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 5-17.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política macroeconómica; políticas de estabilización; análisis de políticas fiscales y monetarias; episodios de política económica; historia económica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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