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Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Bordo

    (Rutgers University)

  • Pierre L. Siklos

    (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Abstract

A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is calculated for a large group of both advanced and emerging countries from 1980 to 2014. Financial crises reduce central bank credibility and central banks with strong institutional feaures tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most reliable determinants of credibility. Similarly, real economic growth has a significant influence on central bank credibility even in inflation targeting economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 19-45, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-016-9411-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-016-9411-2
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Barrera, Carlos, 2022. "Characterizing the Anchoring Effects of Official Forecasts on Private Expectations," MPRA Paper 114258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Yim, Geunhyung, 2020. "Do inflation-targeting central banks adjust inflation targets to meet the target?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Marmora, Paul, 2022. "Does monetary policy fuel bitcoin demand? Event-study evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Donato Masciandaro, 2016. "More than the Human Appendix: Fed Capital and Central Bank Financial Independence," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1635, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Soyoung Kim & Geunhyung Yim, 2016. "Endogeneity of Inflation Target," Working Papers 2016-18, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Baker, John D. & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2022. "Assessing the credibility of central bank signals: The case of transitory inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Bicchal, Motilal, 2022. "Central bank credibility and its effect on stabilization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 73-94.
    10. Oscar To, 2024. "Stochastic credibility and optimal monetary policy," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(S1), pages 124-134, May.
    11. Pınar Kaya Soylu & Mustafa Okur & Özgür Çatıkkaş & Z. Ayca Altintig, 2020. "Long Memory in the Volatility of Selected Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    13. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "Currency competition in Switzerland," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 101-108, December.
    14. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    15. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Issler, João Victor & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2019. "Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 812, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    17. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Sébastien Ringuedé, 2018. "Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: evidence based on a new credibility index," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 493-535, August.
    18. Francesc Trillas Jané, 2016. "Behavioral Regulatory Agencies," Working Papers wpdea1606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    19. Martin Feldkircher & Paul Hofmarcher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "What do central banks talk about? A European perspective on central bank communication," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/21, pages 61-81.
    20. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Central Bank Credibility’s Effect on Stock Exchange Returns’ Volatility: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    22. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," Working Papers hal-04141572, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy credibility; Interest rate targeting; Money growth targeting; Non-linearity and asymmetry in monetary policy; Central banking institution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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