IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v29y2014icp239-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The linkage between insurance activity and banking credit: Some evidence from dynamic analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Guanchun
  • He, Lei
  • Yue, Yiding
  • Wang, Jiying

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run linkages between insurance activity and banking credit for G-7 countries. To minimize the pretest bias and overcome the structural changes, we adopt the bootstrap Granger causality test applied to full sample and subsamples with a fixed window size. The Johansen cointegration test with GMM-IV estimator finds a long-run positive relation between the series. The full sample results of bootstrap Granger causality test show that there is predictive power from life insurance activity to banking credit only for France and Japan, while the short-run causal relationships between nonlife insurance activity and banking credit are country-specific. However, parameter stability test results suggest that the short-run results in full sample are unreliable. The results of rolling VAR models report that the causal linkages between them are time-varying across various subsamples. These findings offer some useful insights for achieving the co-evolution between insurance and banking credit markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Guanchun & He, Lei & Yue, Yiding & Wang, Jiying, 2014. "The linkage between insurance activity and banking credit: Some evidence from dynamic analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:239-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.06.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940814000746
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2014.06.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. Mantalos Panagiotis, 2000. "A Graphical Investigation of the Size and Power of the Granger-Causality Tests in Integrated-Cointegrated VAR Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Yamada, Hiroshi & Toda, Hiro Y., 1998. "Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: some finite sample evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 55-95, June.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Allen, Franklin & Santomero, Anthony M., 2001. "What do financial intermediaries do?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 271-294, February.
    7. Scott E. Harrington, 2009. "The Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, and the Future of Insurance Regulation," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 785-819, December.
    8. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    9. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    10. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.
    11. Marco Arena, 2008. "Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross‐Country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 921-946, December.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    13. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    14. Thorsten Beck & Ian Webb, 2003. "Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 51-88, June.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    16. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2006. "Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1489-1500.
    17. Panagiotis Mantalos & Ghazi Shukur, 1998. "Size and Power of the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test. A Bootstrap Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 249-255, May.
    18. Maurice Kugler & Reza Ofoghi, 2005. "Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 8, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    20. David Tennant & Abdullahi Abdulkadri, 2010. "Empirical exercises in estimating the effects of different types of financial institutions' functioning on economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(30), pages 3913-3924.
    21. Peter Haiss & Kjell Sümegi, 2008. "The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 405-431, September.
    22. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    23. Boucher, Stephen R. & Carter, Michael R. & Guirkinger, Catherine, 2008. "AJAE Appendix: Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agriculture Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-6.
    24. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    25. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    26. Ghazi Shukur & Panagiotis Mantalos, 2000. "A simple investigation of the Granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 1021-1031.
    27. Allen, Linda & Jagtiani, Julapa, 2000. "The risk effects of combining banking, securities, and insurance activities," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 485-497.
    28. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    29. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    30. Guan-Chun Liu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2014. "Insurance activities and banking credit causal nexus: evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(9), pages 626-630, June.
    31. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2013. "The link between life insurance activities and economic growth: Some new evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 405-427.
    32. A. Khalik Salman & Ghazi Shukur, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality between industrial output and CPI in the presence of regime shift: Swedish data," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(6), pages 492-499, October.
    33. Lee Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Does Insurance Matter for Growth: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, June.
    34. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. Stephen R. Boucher & Michael R. Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2008. "Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agricultural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 409-423.
    37. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Huang, Wei-Ling & Yin, Chun-Hao, 2013. "The dynamic interactions among the stock, bond and insurance markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 28-52.
    39. Martin F. Grace & Michael J. Rebello, 1993. "Financing and the Demand for Corporate Insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 18(2), pages 147-171, December.
    40. Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Insurance And Real Output: The Key Role Of Banking Activities," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 235-260, March.
    41. Chu, Chia-Shang James & Hornik, Kurt & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1995. "The Moving-Estimates Test for Parameter Stability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 699-720, August.
    42. Zou, Hong & Adams, Mike B., 2006. "The corporate purchase of property insurance: Chinese evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 165-196, April.
    43. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    44. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Liyan Han & Donghui Li & Fariborz Moshirian & Yanhui Tian, 2010. "Insurance Development and Economic Growth*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-199, April.
    46. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guan-Chun Liu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "The relationship between insurance and banking sectors: does financial structure matter?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 569-594, October.
    2. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2016. "The dynamic linkage between insurance activities and banking credit: Some new evidence from global countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 40-53.
    3. Rudra P. Pradhan & Saurav Dash & Rana Pratap Maradana & Manju Jayakumar & Kunal Gaurav, 2017. "Insurance market density and economic growth in Eurozone countries: the granger causality approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lin, Chun-Wei & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Financial crises, globalization, and insurer performance: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 835-856.
    5. Rudra P. Pradhan, Mak B. Arvin, John H. Hall and Neville R. Norman, 2017. "Insurance Market Development and Macroeconomic Interactions in Twenty-Six Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 23-57, December.
    6. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sahar Bahmani & Sara E. Bennett & John H. Hall, 2017. "Insurance–growth nexus and macroeconomic determinants: evidence from middle-income countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1337-1366, June.
    7. Relwendé Sawadogo, 2021. "The relationship between insurance and banking sectors in Sub-Saharan African: Does globalization matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 101-119, February.
    8. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, B. Mak & Norman, Neville R. & Nair, Mahendhiran & Hall, John H., 2016. "Insurance penetration and economic growth nexus: Cross-country evidence from ASEAN," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 447-458.
    9. Chang, Chi-Hung, 2018. "The dynamic linkage between insurance and banking activities: An analysis on insurance sector assets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 36-50.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Guan-Chun & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2016. "The nexus between insurance activity and economic growth: A bootstrap rolling window approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 299-319.
    2. Guan-Chun Liu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "The relationship between insurance and banking sectors: does financial structure matter?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 569-594, October.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Housing and the Great Depression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2966-2981, August.
    4. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2016. "The dynamic linkage between insurance activities and banking credit: Some new evidence from global countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 40-53.
    5. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.
    6. Chi-Wei Su & Jiao-Jiao Fan & Hsu-Ling Chang & Xiao-Lin Li, 2016. "Is there Causal Relationship between Money Supply Growth and Inflation in China? Evidence from Quantity Theory of Money," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 702-719, August.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    9. Ming-Hsien YANG & Chih-She WU, 2015. "Revisit Export and GDP Nexus in China and Taiwan: A Rolling Window Granger Causality Test," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 75-92, Autumn.
    10. repec:agr:journl:v:3(604):y:2015:i:3(604):p:75-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Feng-Li Lin & Mei-Chih Wang & Hsien-Hung Kung, 2020. "Housing and Stock Market Nexus in the US," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 114-130.
    12. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
    13. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2018. "The synergistic effect of insurance and banking sector activities on economic growth in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 637-648.
    15. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    16. Rudra P. Pradhan, Mak B. Arvin, John H. Hall and Neville R. Norman, 2017. "Insurance Market Development and Macroeconomic Interactions in Twenty-Six Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 23-57, December.
    17. David Su & Xin Li & Oana-Ramona Lobonþ & Yanping Zhao, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and housing returns in Germany: Evidence from a bootstrap rolling window," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(1), pages 43-61.
    18. Xue GAO & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "Does exchange rate always affect the number of inbound tourists significantly in China?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 55-72, Spring.
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli & Abderrazak Dhaoui & Julien Chevallier, 2022. "Bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality dynamics between momentum and sentiment: implications for investors," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 267-283, June.
    21. Yingying Xu & Zhi-Xin Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Adelina Dumitrescu Peculea & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1098-1113, March.
    22. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Chang, Hsu-Ling, 2019. "Does money supply drive housing prices in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-94.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insurance activity; Banking credit; Bootstrap Granger causality test; Rolling VAR approach; Time-varying causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:239-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.