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A Cointegration Test To Verify The Housing Bubble

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  • Bala Arshanapalli
  • William Nelson

Abstract

Housing prices in the US rose rapidly from 2000-2007Q3. Based on this evidence, the financial and general press concluded the US experienced a housing bubble. The efficient market theory denies the possibility of a bubble. This paper applies the statistical technique of cointegration to substantiate the presence of a housing bubble. The paper finds the statistical evidence consistent with the presence of a housing bubble in the period 2000-2007Q3 and not the underlying economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bala Arshanapalli & William Nelson, 2008. "A Cointegration Test To Verify The Housing Bubble," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(2), pages 35-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:2:y:2008:i:2:p:34-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhi, Tianhao & Li, Zhongfei & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Wei, Lijian & Sornette, Didier, 2019. "Is there a housing bubble in China?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 120-132.
    2. Nélson Leitão Paes & Cássio Da Nóbrega Besarria & Marcelo Eduardo Alves Da Silva, 2018. "Bubbles In The Prices Of Housing? Evidence To Brazil?S Economy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 118, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Tianhao Zhi & Zhongfei Li & Zhiqiang Jiang & Lijian Wei & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Is there a housing bubble in China," Papers 1801.03678, arXiv.org.
    4. Philip Arestis Author-Email: pa267@cam.ac.uk & Ana Rosa Gonzalez-Martinez, 2017. "Housing Market in Israel: Is there a Bubble?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Галенкова А.Д.* & Мариев О.С.** & Никитин М.В.*** & Юнусова И.М.****, 2019. "Эконометрическое Исследование Пузырей На Рынках Недвижимости России," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(4), pages 43-56, октябрь.
    6. Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria & Nelson Leitão Paes & Marcelo Eduardo Alves Silva, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in housing markets: some evidence for Brazil," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(5), pages 754-770, June.
    7. Torres-Tellez, Jonathan & Montero Soler, Alberto, 2021. "El precio de la vivienda en España tras el inicio de la crisis económica: un análisis empírico || Housing prices in Spain after the beginning of the financial crisis: An empirical analysis," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 32(1), pages 376-391, December.
    8. Ting Lan, 2019. "Intrinsic bubbles and Granger causality in the Hong Kong residential property market," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a Housing Bubble at the National and Regional Level: The Case of Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2015.05, Bank of Israel.
    10. Ullah, Irfan & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2021. "Identifying Phases of Ebullience in EFTA Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 109633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Darrell Jiajie Tay & Chung-I Chou & Sai-Ping Li & Shang You Tee & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "Bubbles Are Departures from Equilibrium Housing Markets: Evidence from Singapore and Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    12. Gueye, Ghislain Nono, 2021. "Pitfalls in the cointegration analysis of housing prices with the macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2015. "Testing for Bubbles in the Colombian Housing Market: A New Approach," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, August.
    14. Serhan Cevik & Sadhna Naik, 2024. "Bubble detective: City‐level analysis of house price cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 2-16, April.
    15. Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma & Ohannes George Paskelian, 2012. "Bubble In The Indian Real Estate Markets: Identification Using Regime-Switching Methodology," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 27-40.
    16. Tran, Thi Bich Ngoc, 2017. "Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 454-467.

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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