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Эконометрическое Исследование Пузырей На Рынках Недвижимости России

Author

Listed:
  • Галенкова А.Д.*
  • Мариев О.С.**
  • Никитин М.В.***
  • Юнусова И.М.****

Abstract

Высшая школа экономики и менеджмента, Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина, Екатеринбург *E-mail: agalenkova@mail.ru **E-mail: olegmariev@mail.ru ***E-mail: mihailnikitin1993@yandex.ru ****E-mail: imyunusova@gmail.com Исследование выполнено при поддержке гранта Российского научного фонда (проект №19-18-00262 "Моделирование сбалансированного технологического и социально-экономического развития российских регионов"). Аннотация. Авторы тестируют рынки недвижимости российских регионов на наличие пузырей, используя тест на коинтеграцию Педрони. Следуя теоретическому критерию Аршанапалли и Нельсона, при отсутствии пузырей индекс цен на жилую недвижимость должен быть коинтегрированным с такими фундаментальными факторами рынка жилой недвижимости, как ипотечная ставка, цены на строительную продукцию, экономическая активность и благосостояние населения. Авторы адаптируют этот критерий для применения не только индексного, но и стоимостного подхода (в рублевом и долларовом эквивалентах) к определению наличия пузырей на рынках первичной и вторичной жилой недвижимости российских регионов. По результатам тестирования сделаны выводы о том, что индексы цен на рынках первичной и вторичной недвижимости некорректно отражают реальный обвал российских рынков недвижимости в 2008 г., а конъюнктура российских рынков недвижимости не зависит от валютного курса. Новизна авторского подхода заключается в комбинировании и расширении существующих методик выявления пузырей на региональных рынках недвижимости. Основным результатом исследования стал впервые полученный и эмпирически доказанный вывод о том, что пузыри на российских рынках недвижимости появились и лопнули независимо от международной экономической конъюнктуры.

Suggested Citation

  • Галенкова А.Д.* & Мариев О.С.** & Никитин М.В.*** & Юнусова И.М.****, 2019. "Эконометрическое Исследование Пузырей На Рынках Недвижимости России," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(4), pages 43-56, октябрь.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:55:y:2019:i:4:p:43-56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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