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El control del gasto público por incapacidad temporal mediante redes neuronales

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Santín González

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Rosa Romay López

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

La incapacidad temporal (IT) en España generó en el año 2001 unos costes directos de cuatro mil millones de euros y unos costes indirectos aproximados de doce mil millones de euros. Los métodos actuales de control de la IT se realizan a posteriori, una vez recibida la baja laboral y principalmente sobre la base de duraciones normativas para cada enfermedad. El objetivo de este trabajo es proponer un modelo para la gestión de la IT con el fin de disminuir de forma racional el coste de la prestación por IT no justificado, por medio del control de su duración de manera individualizada. Para este fin se propone el uso de una herramienta flexible, las redes neuronales artificiales (RNAs), que permita predecir la duración de la baja laboral esperada para cada afiliado activo en función de determinadas variables individuales, además de la enfermedad, que también influyen en el tiempo de baja pero que no tienen en cuenta los métodos actuales. Los resultados empíricos de este trabajo, obtenidos para la provincia de Guadalajara durante el período 1995-2001, muestran cómo el modelo de RNAs permite realizar mejores predicciones individualizadas que un modelo tradicional de regresión lineal múltiple. Además, estas predicciones a priori van a permitir racionalizar el proceso de gestión y control de la prestación económica por IT con el consiguiente ahorro de gasto público. Classification-JEL : H51, I18

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Santín González & Rosa Romay López, 2003. "El control del gasto público por incapacidad temporal mediante redes neuronales," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 165(2), pages 53-78, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2003:v:165:i:2:p:53-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
    2. Dunn, L F & Youngblood, Stuart A, 1986. "Absenteeism as a Mechanism for Approaching an Optimal Labor Market Equilibrium: An Empirical Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 668-674, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    . Incapacidad temporal; redes neuronales artificiales; control del gasto público.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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