Assessment of Carbon-Related Scenarios for Tourism Development in the Island of Lefkada in Greece

To address the adverse impact of climate change, the concept of low-carbon tourism has recently been developed, which promotes a new way of travelling to obtain higher value and travel experience for tourists as well as more social, economic, and environmental benefits for society by reducing carbon emissions caused by tourists’ activities. The present study proposes and applies a methodological approach to assess various carbon-related scenarios for tourism development on the island of Lefkada, Greece. The methodology includes two phases: the diagnosis and the assessment phase. The diagnosis phase includes four distinct steps: (i) SWOT analysis, (ii) STEEP analysis, (iii) identification of driving forces (DF) and (iv) formulation of four tourism development scenarios based on two axes of uncertainty. The assessment phase includes: (i) a pairwise comparison of DF and (ii) selection of the preferred tourism development scenario. A combination of two multicriteria analyses, namely the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), is implemented to rank the four tourism development scenarios. The two most essential driving forces for defining the priority order of the tourism development scenario are National Policies—Green Development and Local Community Awareness. The scenario that promotes low-carbon tourism is the preferred scenario for the study area. The presented research results could provide a reference for relevant tourism development in the study area and the proposed methodology can be applied in all tourism destinations.