IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i3p994-d1325190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of COVID-19 and the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict on Food Supply Chain: A Case Study from Bread Supply Chain in Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Noha A. Mostafa

    (Industrial Engineering Department, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519, Egypt
    Mechanical Engineering Department, The British University in Egypt, El Sherouk City 11837, Egypt)

  • Abdelwahab A. Hussein

    (Mechanical Engineering Department, The British University in Egypt, El Sherouk City 11837, Egypt)

  • Mohab Elsheeta

    (Mechanical Engineering Department, The British University in Egypt, El Sherouk City 11837, Egypt)

  • Giovanni Romagnoli

    (Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, 43124 Parma, Italy)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war have significantly impacted global supply chains, including the food supply chain, in numerous countries. As one of the leading wheat importers, Egypt has been adversely affected by the simultaneous occurrence of these two events. Baladi bread is an integral part of the daily diet in Egypt, so any disruption affecting its availability can have a severe impact on the country’s food security. This study aims to simulate the causes and effects of potential disruptions that could occur, such as increased transportation time, unavailability of sourcing, and surge in demand due to lockdowns and panic buying. The East Cairo region was chosen as a case study to model the Baladi bread supply chain. A discrete-event simulation model was developed using anyLogistix software (version 2.15.1) for this study. Five key performance indicators were selected to evaluate, analyze, and compare the outcomes of each scenario in terms of the performance and operation of the food supply chain: service level by product, lead time, demand backlog, average daily available inventory in the mills, and on-hand inventory of wheat in the silos. The results indicate that the supply chain has been significantly impacted by the disruptions caused by these two events, leading to decreased availability of Baladi bread, unmet demand, extended lead times, and high backlogs. By utilizing the research findings, proactive strategies can be developed to minimize the impact of such disruptions in the future and maximize food security and supply chain resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Noha A. Mostafa & Abdelwahab A. Hussein & Mohab Elsheeta & Giovanni Romagnoli, 2024. "Impacts of COVID-19 and the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict on Food Supply Chain: A Case Study from Bread Supply Chain in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:994-:d:1325190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/3/994/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/3/994/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keun Hee Lee & Mali Abdollahian & Sergei Schreider & Sona Taheri, 2023. "Supply Chain Demand Forecasting and Price Optimisation Models with Substitution Effect," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Mari, Sonia Irshad & Lee, Young Hae & Memon, Muhammad Saad & Cho, Su Yeon, 2014. "A Three-level Sustainable and Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Disruption," MPRA Paper 58228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yakun Huang & Jack Li & Yuan Qi & Victor Shi & Lei Xie, 2021. "Predicting the Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Supply Chains and Their Sustainability: A Simulation Study," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-9, December.
    4. David Grigg, 1999. "Food Consumption in the Mediterranean Region," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 90(4), pages 391-409, November.
    5. Ilinova, Alina & Dmitrieva, Diana & Kraslawski, Andrzej, 2021. "Influence of COVID-19 pandemic on fertilizer companies: The role of competitive advantages," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Ana Esteso & M. M. E. Alemany & Fernando Ottati & Ángel Ortiz, 2023. "System dynamics model for improving the robustness of a fresh agri-food supply chain to disruptions," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1-53, June.
    7. Jill E. Hobbs, 2020. "Food supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 171-176, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Umar Farooq & Amjad Hussain & Tariq Masood & Muhammad Salman Habib, 2021. "Supply Chain Operations Management in Pandemics: A State-of-the-Art Review Inspired by COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-33, February.
    2. Rosario Michel-Villarreal & Eliseo Luis Vilalta-Perdomo & Maurizio Canavari & Martin Hingley, 2021. "Resilience and Digitalization in Short Food Supply Chains: A Case Study Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, May.
    3. João Pires Ribeiro & Ana Paula F. D. Barbosa-Póvoa, 2023. "A responsiveness metric for the design and planning of resilient supply chains," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 324(1), pages 1129-1181, May.
    4. Gast, Johannes & Kirkach, Evelina & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2022. "Structured literature review of transport networks and Supply Chain Resilience," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Kersten, Wolfgang & Jahn, Carlos & Blecker, Thorsten & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Changing Tides: The New Role of Resilience and Sustainability in Logistics and Supply Chain Management – Innovative Approaches for the Shift to a New , volume 33, pages 469-496, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    5. Fang, Da & Guo, Yan, 2022. "Flow of goods to the shock of COVID-19 and toll-free highway policy: Evidence from logistics data in China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Blake-Rath, Robyn & Grote, Ulrike, 2022. "Resilienz und Digitalisierung in der deutschen Agrarwirtschaft: Lehren aus der COVID-19-Pandemie," 62nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 7-9, 2022 329610, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    7. Zahra Fozouni Ardekani & Seyed Mohammad Javad Sobhani & Marcelo Werneck Barbosa & Ehsan Amiri-Ardekani & Samaneh Dehghani & Najmeh Sasani & Hans De Steur, 2024. "Determinants of household food waste behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: an integrated model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26205-26235, October.
    8. Fu Jia & Yan Jiang, 2018. "Sustainable Global Sourcing: A Systematic Literature Review and Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-26, February.
    9. Margherita Bernabei & Silvia Colabianchi & Francesco Costantino, 2022. "Actions and Strategies for Coronavirus to Ensure Supply Chain Resilience: A Systemic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Nguyen, Ly & Schmitz, Andrew, 2022. "The Welfare Impacts of Covid-19 on U.S. Salmon Sector," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322351, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Antonio Zavala-Alcívar & María-José Verdecho & Juan-José Alfaro-Saiz, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Manage Resilience and Increase Sustainability in the Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-38, August.
    12. Anca C. Farcas & Charis M. Galanakis & Carmen Socaciu & Oana L. Pop & Dorin Tibulca & Adriana Paucean & Mirela A. Jimborean & Melinda Fogarasi & Liana C. Salanta & Maria Tofana & Sonia A. Socaci, 2020. "Food Security during the Pandemic and the Importance of the Bioeconomy in the New Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Rihn, Alicia L. & Jensen, Kimberly & Hughes, David W., 2022. "Tennessee's Wine Industry: Consumer Perceptions, Quality Assurance Programs and Marketing Strategies," Extension Reports 319853, University of Tennessee, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    14. Meuwissen, Miranda & Feindt, Peter & Slijper, Thomas & Spiegel, Alisa & Finger, Robert & de Mey, Yann & Paas, Wim & Termeer, Katrien & Poortvliet, P. Marijn & Peneva, Mariya & Urquhart, Julie & Vigani, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 on farming systems in Europe through the lens of resilience thinking," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 191.
    15. F. Bailey Norwood & Derrell Peel, 2021. "Supply Chain Mapping to Prepare for Future Pandemics," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 412-429, March.
    16. Lorenzo Bruno Prataviera & Alessandro Creazza & Marco Melacini & Fabrizio Dallari, 2022. "Heading for Tomorrow: Resilience Strategies for Post-COVID-19 Grocery Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Ranveer Singh Rana & Dinesh Kumar & Kanika Prasad & K. Mathiyazhagan, 2024. "Mitigating the impact of demand disruption on perishable inventory in a two-warehouse system," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 469-504, June.
    18. Jelena Končar & Radenko Marić & Goran Vukmirović & Sonja Vučenović, 2021. "Sustainability of Food Placement in Retailing during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    19. Liu, Yang & Li, Sen, 2023. "An economic analysis of on-demand food delivery platforms: Impacts of regulations and integration with ride-sourcing platforms," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    20. Haider, Zulqarnain & Hu, Yujie & Charkhgard, Hadi & Himmelgreen, David & Kwon, Changhyun, 2022. "Creating grocery delivery hubs for food deserts at local convenience stores via spatial and temporal consolidation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:994-:d:1325190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.