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Dynamic Simulation of Energy Scenarios in the Transition to Sustainable Mobility in the Ecuadorian Transport Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Johana Atiaja

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador)

  • Flavio Arroyo

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador)

  • Víctor Hidalgo

    (Carrera de Pedagogía Técnica de la Mecatrónica, Facultad de Filosofía, Letras y Ciencias de la Educación, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito 170129, Ecuador
    Laboratorio de Mecánica Informática, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito 170517, Ecuador)

  • José Erazo

    (Laboratorio de Mecánica Informática, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito 170517, Ecuador)

  • Abel Remache

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador)

  • Dely Bravo

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador)

Abstract

In Ecuador, the growth of the transportation sector has significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions. According to experts, this sector currently contributes to 49.8% of total greenhouse gas emissions in this country. This poses significant challenges for environmental sustainability, emphasizing the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate these emissions and promote environmentally friendly practices. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a dynamic simulation of energy scenarios for the year 2035 in the transportation sector, with the goal of transitioning to sustainable mobility, as fossil fuels are the main pollutants in the country. This study proposes system dynamics models using VENSIM 6.0b software to estimate the total energy demand and pollutant emissions in the transportation sector. The results suggest that if Ecuador aligns with global mobility trends and implements public policies promoting the use of electric vehicles, total CO 2 emissions could potentially decrease from 50,161,432 kilobarrels of oil equivalent (kBOE) to 20,589,720 kBOE by the year 2035.

Suggested Citation

  • Johana Atiaja & Flavio Arroyo & Víctor Hidalgo & José Erazo & Abel Remache & Dely Bravo, 2024. "Dynamic Simulation of Energy Scenarios in the Transition to Sustainable Mobility in the Ecuadorian Transport Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6640-:d:1449235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2020. "Low-Carbon Energy Governance: Scenarios to Accelerate the Change in the Energy Matrix in Ecuador," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Wolfram, Paul & Wiedmann, Thomas, 2017. "Electrifying Australian transport: Hybrid life cycle analysis of a transition to electric light-duty vehicles and renewable electricity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 531-540.
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