IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i22p15301-d976191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on Short-Time Wind Speed Prediction in Mountainous Areas Based on Improved ARIMA Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zelin Zhou

    (China 19th Metallurgical Corporation, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Yiyan Dai

    (Department of Bridge Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Jun Xiao

    (CCCC Second Highway Engineering Co., Ltd., Xi’an 710199, China
    Shaanxi Union Research Center of University and Enterprise for Bridge Intelligent Construction, Xi’an 710199, China)

  • Maoyi Liu

    (Chongqing Construction Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., Chongqing 400010, China)

  • Jinxiang Zhang

    (Department of Bridge Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Mingjin Zhang

    (Department of Bridge Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

Abstract

In rugged mountain areas, the lateral aerodynamic force and aerodynamic lift caused by strong winds are the main reasons for the lateral overturning of trains and the destruction of buildings and structures along the railroad line. Therefore, it is important to build a strong wind alarm system along the railroad line, and a reasonable and accurate short-time forecast of a strong wind is the basis of it. In this research, two methods of constructive function and time-series decomposition are proposed to pre-process the input wind speed for periodic strong winds in mountainous areas. Then, the improved Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model time-series model was established through the steps of a white noise test, data stationarity test, model recognition, and order determination. Finally, the effectiveness of the improved wind speed prediction was examined. The results of the research showed that rational choice of processing functions has a large impact on wind speed prediction results. The prediction accuracy of the improved ARIMA model proposed in this paper is better than the results of the traditional Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model, and it can quickly and accurately realize the short-time wind speed prediction along the railroad line in rugged mountains. In addition, the improved ARIMA model has verified its universality in different mountainous places.

Suggested Citation

  • Zelin Zhou & Yiyan Dai & Jun Xiao & Maoyi Liu & Jinxiang Zhang & Mingjin Zhang, 2022. "Research on Short-Time Wind Speed Prediction in Mountainous Areas Based on Improved ARIMA Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:15301-:d:976191
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/22/15301/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/22/15301/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. John C. Nankervis & Nathan E. Savin, 2012. "Testing for uncorrelated errors in ARMA models: non‐standard Andrews‐Ploberger tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(3), pages 516-534, October.
    3. Shahid, Farah & Zameer, Aneela & Muneeb, Muhammad, 2021. "A novel genetic LSTM model for wind power forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    4. Jung, Sungmoon & Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2013. "Weighted error functions in artificial neural networks for improved wind energy potential estimation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 778-790.
    5. Li, Lei & Yin, Xiao-Li & Jia, Xin-Chun & Sobhani, Behrooz, 2020. "Day ahead powerful probabilistic wind power forecast using combined intelligent structure and fuzzy clustering algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Yanling & Xiao, Xia & Wang, Jianzhou & Chi, Dezhong & Guo, Zhenhai, 2017. "Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 183-202.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongran Song & Xiao Tan & Qian Huang & Li Wang & Mi Dong & Jian Yang & Solomin Evgeny, 2024. "Review of AI-Based Wind Prediction within Recent Three Years: 2021–2023," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Du, Pei & Yang, Dongchuan & Li, Yanzhao & Wang, Jianzhou, 2024. "An innovative interpretable combined learning model for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Zhou & Zeng, Shaoxiong & Jiang, Ruiqi & Zhang, Haoran & Yang, Zhile, 2023. "Explainable temporal dependence in multi-step wind power forecast via decomposition based chain echo state networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    2. Ding, Song & Cai, Zhijian & Qin, Xinghuan & Shen, Xingao, 2024. "Comparative assessment and policy analysis of forecasting quarterly renewable energy demand: Fresh evidence from an innovative seasonal approach with superior matching algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    3. Liu, Shuwei & Tian, Jianyan & Ji, Zhengxiong & Dai, Yuanyuan & Guo, Hengkuan & Yang, Shengqiang, 2024. "Research on multi-digital twin and its application in wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    4. Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Jiaxuan & Wan, Jiashuang & Wu, Shifa, 2022. "A fault diagnosis method for small pressurized water reactors based on long short-term memory networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    5. Xiaohan Huang & Aihua Jiang, 2022. "Wind Power Generation Forecast Based on Multi-Step Informer Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Shi, Qiao & Lin, Yanwen & Hao, Yongchao & Song, Zixuan & Zhou, Ziyue & Fu, Yuequn & Zhang, Zhisen & Wu, Jianyang, 2023. "Unconventional growth of methane hydrates: A molecular dynamics and machine learning study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    7. Huang, Zhiwen & Li, Tong & Huang, Kexin & Ke, Hanbing & Lin, Mei & Wang, Qiuwang, 2022. "Predictions of flow and temperature fields in a T-junction based on dynamic mode decomposition and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    8. Liu, Zhi-Feng & Liu, You-Yuan & Chen, Xiao-Rui & Zhang, Shu-Rui & Luo, Xing-Fu & Li, Ling-Ling & Yang, Yi-Zhou & You, Guo-Dong, 2024. "A novel deep learning-based evolutionary model with potential attention and memory decay-enhancement strategy for short-term wind power point-interval forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    9. Chen, Wenhe & Zhou, Hanting & Cheng, Longsheng & Xia, Min, 2023. "Prediction of regional wind power generation using a multi-objective optimized deep learning model with temporal pattern attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    10. Khazaei, Sahra & Ehsan, Mehdi & Soleymani, Soodabeh & Mohammadnezhad-Shourkaei, Hosein, 2022. "A high-accuracy hybrid method for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    11. Ye, Lin & Dai, Binhua & Li, Zhuo & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Lu, Peng, 2022. "An ensemble method for short-term wind power prediction considering error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    12. Li, Yanhui & Sun, Kaixuan & Yao, Qi & Wang, Lin, 2024. "A dual-optimization wind speed forecasting model based on deep learning and improved dung beetle optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    13. Fan, Huijing & Zhen, Zhao & Liu, Nian & Sun, Yiqian & Chang, Xiqiang & Li, Yu & Wang, Fei & Mi, Zengqiang, 2023. "Fluctuation pattern recognition based ultra-short-term wind power probabilistic forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    14. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    15. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    16. Liu, Xingdou & Zhang, Li & Wang, Jiangong & Zhou, Yue & Gan, Wei, 2023. "A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 948-963.
    17. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    18. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    19. Wang, Xiaodi & Hao, Yan & Yang, Wendong, 2024. "Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    20. Zhu, Xiaoxun & Liu, Ruizhang & Chen, Yao & Gao, Xiaoxia & Wang, Yu & Xu, Zixu, 2021. "Wind speed behaviors feather analysis and its utilization on wind speed prediction using 3D-CNN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:15301-:d:976191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.