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Vulnerability Assessment for Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems of Gamasa Ras El Bar Area, Nile Delta, Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy

    (Costal Research Institute (CoRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Behind 15, El-Pharaana Street, El SHalalaat, Alexandria 21514, Egypt)

  • Abdulrazak H. Almaliki

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21044, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

The objective of the current study was to assess the vulnerability of coastal systems to sea level rise (SLR) impacts in the Gamasa Ras El Bar area, which is one of the most vulnerable coastal areas in the Nile delta, Egypt. To achieve the study objective, a field campaign was carried out to investigate, measure and collect data. These data, as well as historical data, were analyzed to identify projected inundation areas, erosion and accretion rates, shoreline changes, wave climate and saltwater intrusion, as well as drainage infrastructure efficiency. The results of a 73-cm SLR, projected up to the end of current century in the study area, indicate the following. Inundation areas will be about 2.16% of the study area. Although the significant wave height increased by 3.1 cm per year from 1999 to 2010, the results are indicative and might be taken into consideration in future coastal management plans. The expected variation in groundwater heads due to sea level rise will lead to an increase in groundwater heads ranging from 0 to 0.5 m above the current level. The change expected in groundwater will lead to saltwater intrusion by 1 km landward. The analysis of our results showed that about 271 km 2 (60%) of the area under study will be negatively affected by rising groundwater. This area is occupied by about 70% of the localities in the study area. The analysis of the projected groundwater level rise showed that it will increase the discharges of the sub-drainage system by about 10% of the current rates and less than 1.2% for the open system. It is concluded that the drainage system has the sub-capacity to host the expected increase in drainage discharges without any modifications of the cross-sectional area of most of the drains. In addition, the coastal groundwater aquifer was found to be the most vulnerable system in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy & Abdulrazak H. Almaliki, 2021. "Vulnerability Assessment for Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems of Gamasa Ras El Bar Area, Nile Delta, Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:7:p:3624-:d:523515
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
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    4. M. El-Raey & KR. Dewidar & M. El-Hattab, 1999. "Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 343-361, September.
    5. O.E. Frihy, 2003. "The Nile delta-Alexandria coast: vulnerability to sea-level rise, consequences and adaptation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-138, June.
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